Ominous signs in Afghanistan

The US handover of the vast Bagram air base is a major development in the West’s Afghanistan withdrawal. It underlines the strategic implications of the looming departure of all NATO-led coalition forces. As the Taliban and its al-Qa’ida allies close in on Kabul, Bagram is tactically and symbolically significant. With long runways and 110 parking bays capable of handling the biggest aircraft, the enormous “city within a city” has been the epicentre of the allied war effort and command structure for 20 years.

Apart from retaking Afghanistan and reimposing medieval Islamist rule, getting Bagram and its enormous stockpiles of US and allied military equipment has been the prize most sought after by jihadists. At the weekend, ahead of the September 11 deadline set by Joe Biden to draw down all US forces, US commanders handed Bagram’s control to the 180,000-strong Afghan National Army. Amid reports ANA soldiers across the country are taking off their uniforms and embracing the Taliban as it retakes control of vast tracts of Afghanistan, Bagram may not be secure from a jihadist takeover.

The Wall Street Journal reports US officials have intensified planning for a possible emergency evacuation of the large American embassy in Kabul amid the rapidly worsening security situation. Details suggest a looming scenario similar to the ill-starred April 1975 evacuation of 7000 people from the US embassy in Saigon.

Any evacuation operation, should it become necessary, would require an influx of US airborne troops and large strategic aircraft to extract embassy personnel and thousands of other Americans and citizens of allied countries. The Pentagon has said it intends keeping 650 troops in Kabul to defend the embassy. It also has said that, without Bagram, it will deploy air power from Middle East bases and nearby aircraft carriers to deal with whatever eventuates. Mr Biden has ignored concerns of some US commanders about the ANA’s ability to retain control of Bagram and hold at bay the jihadist regime that led to the 9/11 attacks.

Attempts by the US to persuade Pakistan to allow it to use military bases there to support the US-installed government in Kabul have been rebuffed by Prime Minister Imran Khan. All of Australia’s troops in Afghanistan are believed to have left last month. The speed with which Bagram has been handed over to ANA control suggests events in Afghanistan are moving fast. Allowing the country to return to its medieval past, when women were ruthlessly oppressed and girls denied elementary schooling, would betray all that generations of allied forces fought and died for.