Nuclear threat lifts stakes in war

The warning by a top Kremlin adviser of possible nuclear strikes on Europe to “break” Western support for Ukraine underlines what is at stake as Kyiv presses on with its counter-offensive. Sergey Karaganov, of the Council of Foreign and Defence Policy, a hardliner among Vladimir Putin’s closest aides, has reportedly had a profound impact on the tyrant’s thinking. Earlier this week, Mr Putin said continued supply of Western weapons to Ukraine could trigger a third world war.

That coincided with Belarusian dictator and close Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko’s announcement that the Minsk regime is taking delivery of tactical nuclear weapons that he says he is prepared to use. He boasted of “missiles and bombs from Russia that are three times more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagaski”. They are located, he said, at Lida air base, 40km from the border with Lithuania, a Baltic state and NATO member. Mr Karaganov claims there is “little chance the US would retaliate for nuclear strikes on Europe … only if there is a madman in the White House … will America decide on a strike to defend Europeans, incurring a response and sacrificing, say, Boston for, say, Poznan (in Poland)”. Mr Putin reportedly believes that if a Republican – Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis – wins next year’s US election, the administration will be isolationist and unwilling to continue supporting Ukraine.

This is not the first time Russia has sounded nuclear alarm bells in the 15 months since it invaded Ukraine. The warning comes as Kyiv is making steady progress in its long-awaited counter-offensive, and follows Mr Putin’s admission he has lost 54 tanks in recent combat.

Whether Mr Putin is preparing to use tactical nuclear weapons remains to be seen. But he could well do so if, in ending what has been largely a stalemate, Kyiv comes even close to achieving its goal of compelling the Kremlin’s army to retreat back inside Russia. Achieving that would be hard. The area of Russian-held territory that matters most is that between Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of Azov – the so-called “land corridor” that connects Russia to illegally annexed Crimea. If Ukraine can retake the corridor, it will cut off Russian forces in the south from supply lines. Russia has built formidable defences to repel Kyiv’s forces and Moscow retains a significant advantage in troop numbers and firepower. It also dominates the skies over Ukraine. The stakes for Europe and the US-led Western alliance in the counter-offensive are enormous. Backing Ukraine to the hilt remains the best option for nations that value freedom and respect humanity.