North Korea’s ominous message

North Korean boasting about test-firing new long-range cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads underlines the importance of the agreements Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Foreign Minister Marise Payne concluded with their South Korean counterparts on Monday. Australia and South Korea, Mr Dutton emphasised, were “natural defence partners”. Together, he said, “we face an increasingly uncertain and contested strategic environment”.

North Korean despot Kim Jong-un firing missiles capable of striking US military bases and other targets up to 1500km away in South Korea, Japan and beyond shows why. Mr Kim did so on Saturday, the 20th anniversary of 9/11, and on Sunday. According to Pyongyang, the missiles followed a trajectory “above the territorial land and waters” of North Korea. But the Indo-Pacific command of the US military warned the missiles “pose a threat to North Korea’s neighbours and the international community”. Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Katsunobu Kato, expressed “extreme concern” about “a serious threat to the peace and safety of Japan and surrounding areas”. Seoul did the same.

North Korea’s reversion to belligerence came after a lull following Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House. It coincided not only with the anniversary of 9/11 but also occurred in the aftermath of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Mr Kim reportedly believes that has unsettled US allies across the Indo-Pacific. China, Pyongyang’s ally, is seeking to portray the Kabul debacle as a sign of Washington’s lack of reliability as an ally. The tests also coincided with growing political uncertainty in Japan, where potential successors are jostling to take over from Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who is set to resign at the end of the month. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a strong US ally, is due to leave office in a few months.

The agreements concluded by Mr Dutton and Senator Payne are vital to ensuring strategic co-operation and cohesion between South Korea and Australia, alongside the US, Japan and India, in securing the region’s stability. Mr Dutton announced an infantry exercise involving South Korea and Australia from 2023 and more training “to improve interoperability, enhance mutual understanding and build solid people-to-people links”. A joint statement emphasised the importance of the “free and rules-based multilateral trading system” and “upholding freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea”, a reference to China. Amid concern about Pyongyang’s actions, Beijing issued its usual call for restraint. But after years of Beijing promising to use its influence over North Korea but doing nothing, few believe China’s feigned concern.

Mr Kim’s move is a setback after the initial optimism raised by Donald Trump’s opening to North Korea in 2018. It also adds another dimension to the AUSMIN meetings Mr Dutton and Senator Payne will attend with their US counterparts in Washington. The missiles also will be an issue, in addition to China’s regional aggression, when Mr Biden holds his first in-person summit at the White House on September 24 with Scott Morrison and the other Quadrilateral Strategic Alliance leaders, India’s Narendra Modi and Japan’s Mr Suga. The need for democracies to work cohesively to confront the increasing security and strategic challenges facing the Indo-Pacific has seldom been greater.