Nick Xenophon to give SA poll a bit of the X factor

Nick Xenophon might not have been eligible when he was elected to the Senate in 2008, 2014 or last year but, whatever the High Court decides on that issue, he will soon resign. Senator Xenophon says this cloud over his status has played no part in his decision. He will remain in the Senate until the High Court decides he must resign or it affirms his eligibility, and he quits of his own accord. Having entered the Senate after a decade in South Australian politics, this media-savvy independent will return to his home state and run for a lower house seat in the March state election. It is a characteristically brash and clever strategy from a unique politician. It could have profound repercussions on both federal and SA political dynamics. On face value the move appears adroit, although Senator Xenophon will need to be careful he is not too clever by half.

In Canberra, this peripatetic interlocutor will be missed by Malcolm Turnbull. In a complex chamber, Senator Xenophon has controlled three votes on the crossbench and has been a diligent and fair-minded negotiator. To be sure, he has blocked budget and other measures — such as the same-sex marriage plebiscite — on which the government had a mandate. But on most issues he has been prepared to engage, compromise and work towards meaningful resolutions. The most recent example of this was the media reform package on which the Coalition was able to deliver most of its policy aims for the relatively small price of some assistance for small publishers and support for journalism cadetships that Senator Xenophon demanded.

After his imminent resignation, the Nick Xenophon Team still will hold three crucial Senate seats — and their team leader still will direct them from afar — but clearly this process would be easier for the government if the key player were in the building. Much will hinge on who fills the NXT vacancy.

Some will speculate that Senator Xenophon’s move is designed to pre-empt an unfavourable outcome in the High Court, yet this is unlikely because in all probability he could have filled his own casual vacancy if necessary and he has ruled out doing so in any event. More to the point is that this popular politician needs to return to the state scene to generate sufficient momentum to have an impact at the SA election. NXT had been riding high, winning more than 21 per cent of the Senate vote last year for the second federal election running. This bettered the 20 per cent vote received in the SA upper house in the 2006 election under the No Pokies banner and was much higher than the 13 per cent under NXT in the 2014 state poll. But two months ago the sole NXT member in the SA upper house, John Darley, quit the party and stayed in parliament after a falling out with Senator Xenophon. To regain critical mass and ensure NXT isn’t stranded in Canberra without a presence in state politics, it must win seats in March. And without a sitting MP or high-profile issues, the brand was in need of some sort of X factor — this is exactly what Senator Xenophon, as is his wont, provided yesterday.

He is unashamedly campaigning for protest votes against the major parties which he says disappoint him to the “brink of despair”. Under his SA-Best banner he hopes to hold the balance of power in both the lower and upper houses on Adelaide’s North Terrace. So Senator Xenophon hopes not only to influence legislative results in the upper house but also to decide who will form government. This throws a wildcard into the March poll, when a moribund state could change government for the first time in 16 years. For the first time in more than three decades the election will be held on fair boundaries after the Liberals lost despite winning 53 per cent of the popular vote in 2014. This means Labor Premier Jay Weatherill starts the election from behind. Despite lukewarm voter sentiment towards the Liberals under Steven Marshall, the likelihood of an emphatic switch was strong. The state’s crisis in power prices and reliability, as well as a poorly performing economy and a host of health and welfare scandals, have placed Labor on the ropes. Now the SA-Best factor complicates things. If it can win just a handful of seats in the 47-member lower house it could decide who governs. Senator Xenophon owes it to all SA voters to declare clearly and early which major party he would support for government. He says he would not serve in any cabinet but he must be honest and upfront with voters about who he would back into power. A state that has seen the voters’ wishes overturned by dodgy boundaries at most elections in recent decades should not have to outsource its decision to Senator Xenophon’s post-election deals. If successful, the X factor could dictate outcomes in both SA houses and the Senate. It could be too much power in too many places for one man with ill-defined policies. It is a symptom of the current political dysfunction that such a proposition is taken seriously.

Unless Senator Xenophon is placed under scrutiny and pressed for answers, this bizarre scenario could play out.