Newspoll shows major parties must lift their game

The latest quarterly Newspoll demonstrates the challenge both major parties still face to present themselves as the natural choice for government against the noise of minor parties and independents. On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor leads the Coalition 52 per cent to 48 per cent, with Anthony Albanese still the preferred prime minister at 47 per cent to Peter Dutton’s 35 per cent. But the Greens, One Nation and independents still account for about one-third of the total vote. There are disturbing trends for Labor, which is now behind on a two-party-preferred basis in Western Australia and Queensland. Mr Dutton is picking up ground among male voters, but not with women, and the Coalition is more attractive to 18-34-year-olds, with its primary vote in that demographic above the Greens.

Mr Albanese has survived his broken promise on the stage three tax cuts but Labor cannot claim to have dominance of the agenda. As national editor Dennis Shanahan wrote on Saturday, the final parliamentary ­sitting days before the long pre-­budget break have exposed serious problems. These include the Prime Minister having to assert himself over ministers, rising rivalries and tensions within cabinet, growing concern and resentment among backbenchers, ministerial ineptitude and failures, the pursuit of politically damaging ideological policies and targets, alienation of industry groups, and the corrosive effect of obsessive secrecy. Problem areas include immigration, energy prices, fuel regulations and car prices, protections for religious schools and runaway spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme. The Greens are emboldened and determined to maximise their balance of power in the Senate, and Labor has blinked, suspending moves to protect offshore gas production despite having the support of the Coalition.

With concerns also rising about the government’s ability to deliver on its legislated climate targets, Mr Albanese is doubling down with plans for a raft of industry protection measures, including big subsidies for local manufacturing of renewable energy products in former coalmining seats. Industry protection has a bad track record for an island economy situated a long way from markets and heavily dependent on trade. Subsidising more expensive domestic options and erecting trade barriers to competition go against the hard-won micro-economic reforms of the 1990s. With the cost of living the hot-button issue in the electorate, the government must be careful not to squander what economic credibility it has. In this regard, the federal budget will be a crucial test. Being truthful is an essential first step. As economics correspondent Patrick Commins writes on Monday, the Albanese government’s charges against the Coalition on wages do not stack up. In fact, wages for Australia’s lowest-paid workers have fallen in real terms through Labor terms of government over the past four decades, and have climbed under the Coalition.

The Australian’s analysis shows the real minimum wage lifted at an average annual rate of 0.8 per cent under the prime ministerships of Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison between 2014 and 2021. This matches the equivalent average annual increase in the first two years of the Albanese government – although an inflation-matching rise in 2024 would lower that average figure to 0.5 per cent. Under John Howard between 1996 and 2007, real minimum wages rose at an average annual pace of 1 per cent, and then by 0.3 per cent under Labor leadership between 2008 and 2013. The fastest annual decline of 1.4 per cent was during the Hawke and Keating governments, based on wage decisions between 1983 and 1995. High inflation can explain Labor’s relatively poor record. But the key to lifting wages sustainably is growing the economy through increased productivity, something the Albanese government has yet to demonstrate it is able to do.