New Zealand rethinking AUKUS

After almost 40 years of pointless posturing with its ban on nuclear vessels, New Zealand Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon’s declaration that if he wins the October 14 election he will “explore joining AUKUS” is potentially significant. Precisely what he meant by “joining” must be clarified. He wants New Zealand to be part of Pillar Two of the tripartite AUKUS pact that will provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. Mr Luxon has also pledged to double New Zealand’s defence budget from 1 to 2 per cent of GDP.

Pillar Two covers supply of advanced defence technology, such as cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and undersea capabilities needed for the submarines. Despite his country’s “nuclear-free zone” status, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has also expressed interest in New Zealand being part of Pillar Two. He prevaricated when asked about the issue during Wednesday’s leaders’ debate, saying he would “prefer other arrangements”, but did not resile from his previous statements. Both leaders see an opportunity for New Zealand to help achieve AUKUS’s goals and boost their nation’s long-term security. That is a welcome change after successive governments have doggedly upheld the ban on nuclear ships imposed by David Lange’s Labour administration in 1984. In 2021, after being briefed about AUKUS by Scott Morrison, former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern made it clear Australian nuclear subs, whenever they arrive, would not be allowed to enter New Zealand waters.

The three AUKUS partners should encourage a change of heart in New Zealand. Kowtowing to China, as Mr Hipkins and Ms Ardern have done, does not diminish the reality that Australia getting nuclear submarines is vital for the future of the region. New Zealand’s participation in Pillar Two would boost its security at a time of deepening strategic challenges. But it is unlikely to be viable while Wellington insists on maintaining its anachronistic ban on nuclear ships. Helping with the technology needed for the AUKUS submarines but not allowing them in New Zealand waters would be absurd.