New England emboldens PM

For someone richly endowed with business acumen who made his own luck and built his own financial success, Malcolm Turnbull has been an unlucky Prime Minister. The dual citizenship crisis, not of his making, is a major example, although many of his other problems can be chalked up to lack of political instinct and the common touch. While still surrounded by a sea of troubles, Mr Turnbull might be wondering if his luck is on the turn. Barnaby Joyce’s emphatic win in New England, with an impressive 73.6 per cent of the two-party preferred vote over Labor, must embolden the Prime Minister to get out on the front foot against Bill Shorten. The New England result should also help Coalition discipline, especially in view of maverick MP George Christensen’s apology for his ridiculous lying about his threats to desert the LNP and sit as an independent. No government can survive indefinitely with such white-anting, or with poisonous interventions like that of NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro, who called last week for Mr Turnbull to resign “before Christmas and as a Christmas gift to the people’’. As John Howard said on Saturday, those indulging in the current “outbreak of madness ... should take a cold bath and calm down’’. Mr Turnbull’s sternest test, of course, the Bennelong by-election, is approaching on December 16.

Today’s Newspoll, which records the Coalition’s 24th consecutive loss in the two-party preferred vote since Mr Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott in September 2015, shows how much ground the Coalition has to make up. Mr Turnbull must rue the day he foolishly emphasised the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Mr Abbott. The poll shows the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote has recovered by 2 per cent in three weeks. Labor leads the government 53 per cent to 47 per cent. As well as suggesting many voters’ support is fluid, the poll reveals Australians’ reservations about the Opposition Leader. Like Mr Turnbull, Mr Shorten is deep in negative territory. And despite Mr Turnbull’s political woes, he has extended his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Should Mr Turnbull take note, the poll has a useful pointer that could help him. While scoring well on being likeable and having a vision for the nation, he trails Mr Shorten badly on being “in touch with voters’’. As Paul Kelly writes today, the “the depiction of Turnbull and Joyce together as Coalition leaders, different but united, is an ­indispensable permanent projection for the government’s survival’’. Their joint appearance in Tamworth on Saturday night suggested they could be highly effective together in areas where Mr Turnbull struggles and Mr Joyce cuts through, especially in Queensland, where the result in the next federal election will be crucial. Mr Turnbull would also be prudent to address religious concerns when the same-sex marriage legislation comes before the House of Representatives this week to win back support from the Coalition’s conservative base.

After Mr Shorten’s boasting that Labor’s standards for potential MPs were “demonstrably superior” to that of other parties, the Opposition is squealing about Mr Turnbull’s fair and reasonable move to report Labor MPs whose eligibility is in doubt to the High Court. It is economic policy, however, that remains Labor’s Achilles heel and Mr Turnbull’s strong suit. In contrast to the Coalition’s vital tax reforms, Labor is eminently beatable on its promised tax grabs alone. As David Uren outlined last week, those hikes would impose a crushing $164bn burden on individuals and business, cutting negative gearing, halving the capital gains discount, capping tax accounting deductions and reversing tax cuts for companies with turnovers above $2m. In a competitive world, with the US cutting company taxes from 35 to 20 per cent, this is the last thing Australian families, workers and businesses need. And Labor has no answer. Mr Turnbull and Mr Joyce must spell out that powerful narrative, time and again.