Net-zero plan’s regional appeal

Much remains to be worked out on climate policy between Scott Morrison and his Nationals Coalition partners. But Australia took a historic step on Monday towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 when the Prime Minister announced he would take that target to the Glasgow climate change conference starting on October 31. Mr Morrison ruled out changes to Australia’s Paris Agreement commitment to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030, paving the way for the Nationals to support the climate change pivot. The plan will go to cabinet this week, where protocol suggests Nationals ministers opposed to any decision to support it will be expected to fall into line to keep their seats at the cabinet table.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, ideally, will be able to avoid a damaging Coalition split. While his MPs have finalised a “strong list of demands” to be addressed before the party signs up to net zero by 2050, Mr Morrison and Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor have presented them with a plan with plenty of reassurances and appeal for their rural and regional constituency. The government’s 2050 net-zero plan shows agriculture, resources and gas exports to be higher in volume and value in 2050 than now. The plan envisages Australia remaining one of the world’s leading energy exporters while meeting the long-term net-zero emissions reduction strategy. Demand for high-quality coal is expected to remain strong in coming decades.

Neither will it hurt Australia that an increasingly desperate search for industrial-strength alternatives to coal and oil in the lead-up to the Glasgow COP26 conference is rapidly changing the outlook for uranium. In the past month, new commitments and recommitments to nuclear energy are extending investor interest in uranium, of which Australia has roughly a third of the world’s resources. In Britain, where 20 per cent of power is nuclear, Boris Johnson is set to rebuild the nation’s nuclear energy commitment. New Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also has repositioned his government, suggesting “it is crucial we restart our nuclear plants”.

Mr Morrison gave Coalition MPs another reason to support his net-zero plan on Monday. Australia needed to rely on the Western alliance “now more than ever” and a net-zero commitment was important for the nation’s standing in the international community. Australia would be “drawing down on a lot of historical capital” if the government did not make the commitment to net zero, he said. Far from complaining “We’ll all be rooned”, like Hanrahan, shrewd Nationals MPs will recognise the opportunities the net-zero target presents.