National population plan eases cities’ growth pains

While many rich nations are rapidly ageing, even stagnating, Australia’s population is vibrant and growing. Our population pushed past 25 million last August and is expected to be almost 29 million by 2025. Like it or not, Big Australia is here, but citizens are often enraged because urban infrastructure provision is not keeping pace with population growth. In the two decades to 2016, migration accounted for 54 per cent of the rise in the number of people living here. In the first decade of that period, net overseas migration averaged 110,000 a year. But in the next decade, that figure jumped to 210,000 a year. Over those 20 years, 75 per cent of migrants settled in Sydney, Melbourne and southeast Queensland. This prompted calls from politicians of the far Right and Green Left for an easing in migrant numbers. A Newspoll last July showed 72 per cent of voters favoured reducing our migrant intake.

But in a sign voters may be seeing the bigger picture on planning and population growth, today’s Newspoll reveals 55 per cent of NSW voters believe the state’s population should remain at the current level; only one-quarter said it should be cut. The Australian supports the long-term development of a big and dynamic nation, with its spirit of enterprise, aspiration and diversity refreshed by orderly migration. Over centuries, the arrival of migrants has underpinned our economic growth, deepened our skills base and culture, and enriched our society. When the nation has shunned migrants — in the wake of turmoil, mass strikes and depression — it has suffered, socially and materially.

Yet from time to time, the level of immigration should be reviewed to make sure it meets today’s objectives and community support. In a major speech last November, Scott Morrison set down a robust planning framework for the nation to address population pressures, especially in our largest cities. “Population has played a key role in our economic success,” the Prime Minister said in the Bradfield Oration. “But I also know Australians in our biggest cities are concerned about population. They are saying: ‘Enough. Enough. Enough’.” Mr Morrison noted roads were clogged, buses and trains were full, and schools were no longer taking new students. Some of this housing and infrastructure backlog, which is manifested in poor housing affordability and congestion, can be sheeted home to the shameful development strike in NSW. Almost 20 years ago, former premier Bob Carr declared Sydney was “full”; it was a “closed for business” sign that halted major road, rail and public transport projects until Labor was dumped from office in 2011.

Although Sydney is condemned as a construction site, premiers Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian ramped up delivery of infrastructure; the sheer scale of the capital spending on mega-projects, such as the WestConnex toll road and Sydney Metro rail, has kept national GDP growth ticking in positive territory. Despite the past failures of planning in NSW, and the go-it-alone mayhem of councils in approving developments, there are signs land use and transport planning are now better synchronised. It may be why NSW voters appear less hostile to population growth pressures.

In his November speech, the Prime Minister noted the permanent migration intake was running at about 30,000 below the annual cap set at 190,000; this defacto level, based on tighter visa tests, was likely to remain for some time. Mr Morrison argued the best way forward was a revived national population policy, with governments planning for the anticipated growth in coming decades through the Council of Australian Governments. Outside the capitals, there is a great need for skilled workers and their families to boost population and revitalise smaller cities and regional towns. The onus should be on states to create conditions to attract them. At COAG in December, improving population management, the responsibility of Canberra, and services planning and delivery, which falls to state, territory and local governments, was top of the agenda. The participants committed to working together to strike the right balance, given managing population change is not a top-down decision by Canberra.

Last month the inaugural COAG Treasurers’ forum met and agreed to share data and analysis to better plan skills needs in the regions. Cities, Urban Infrastructure and Population Minister Alan Tudge has spoken of incentives to encourage migrants to settle outside Sydney and Melbourne. The Morrison government is considering mandatory visa requirements for migrants to live in smaller cities or towns for five years. Foreign students may also be given incentives to attend regional institutions. A less centralised approach to population is warranted, because what is right for Hobart and Adelaide may not fly in the epicentres of the population boom. Our immigration program is an important tool in shaping the nation’s destiny. As long as we debate these issues openly and honestly, and take a long-term view on population planning, the community will continue to embrace our most successful example of national building.