Nation well placed to grasp opportunities of a new year

Caution because of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in subdued celebrations to usher in the new year, but Australians have good reasons to feel positive about what 2021 may bring. A year that started with the ravages of bushfires has ended with farmers celebrating high yields and a return of soaking rains. The past year brought testing times for the world but Australia weathered the storm well. As a result, as Scott Morrison says in his New Year’s message, we enter 2021 “stronger, safer” and “together” after finding the “grit and ingenuity” to confront the pandemic, the country’s “greatest challenge since World War II”. Like generations before us, the Prime Minister says, we have found “that same indomitable Australian spirit”. Throughout the year Australia has enhanced its reputation for being an independently minded but dependable partner in global affairs. The nation is well placed, therefore, to engage in the repositioning of international affairs now occurring that will help to define the coming year and decade.

Notable among the shifts already under way is the election of a new president in the US, a successful conclusion to Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU, and new co-operation being forged among like-minded nations to resist the excesses of communist China under Xi Jinping. Australia can expect to work well with Joe Biden’s administration, with shared security interests cementing the bond. Unshackled from the EU, Britain presents a fresh opportunity to expand trade with a country with which Australia shares so much history. Closer to home, trade challenges with China must be addressed, but there are positive signs of strengthening relationships with Japan, India and our Asian neighbours.

Combating the pandemic has come at a heavy cost for governments everywhere, but Australians can feel confident our government has performed better than most. After a rollercoaster ride, Australia’s sharemarket finished the year close to where it started after dipping 43 per cent from its peak when the pandemic first struck. Counter to doomsday predictions of a major correction in house prices, domestic real estate has fared better than many expected, boosting confidence and helping guard against a second-wave economic hit. Coming weeks will show how durable the recovery from COVID-imposed restrictions will be as government support is wound back and lenders assess non-performing loans.

In his message, Mr Morrison announced a small but meaningful change to our national anthem. The words “young and free” will be replaced with “one and free”, a change proposed by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian in November. Mr Morrison is correct when he says Australia, as a modern nation, may be relatively young but our country’s story is ancient — Indigenous Australians have been on our continent for 60,000 years. The change also reflects what we have lived as a nation, especially during the past year, as Mr Morrison says. While the change makes sense, it is unfortunate that various states are again undermining national unity and cohesion by reimposing hard border lockdowns in response to new and relatively small coronavirus clusters. After reporting 18 new COVID cases on Wednesday, NSW contained the increase to 10 on Thursday. On the strength of the rising caseload, Victoria has closed its border to NSW, inconveniencing travellers far removed from hotspots. Western Australia has taken the absurd step of shutting out Victorians, whose state recorded three new cases in the past 24 hours. Regardless of new year spirit, political expediency rules weeks from the WA election in March.

States adopting the hardline approaches of Daniel Andrews and Mark McGowan against COVID-19 would be well advised to learn the lessons of history. Henry Ergas, in his first column for 2021 on Friday, notes that after the devastating plague that ravaged 14th-century Italian city-states, it was the most autocratic rulers who responded most brutally, and seemingly most effectively, by implementing draconian policies of mandatory isolation, closing public places and prohibiting foreigners from entering. Across the longer term, however, it was not the autocracies that flourished but the more liberal republics that were better able to improvise and adapt. A similar pattern emerged in the 1820s when a series of cholera pandemics struck Europe. While autocratic Prussia led the way in hard borders and crowd control, it was Britain’s less drastic and intrusive measures that fostered innovative solutions and proved more effective in the long run.

Internationally, with vaccination programs under way in the world’s major hotspots, including the US and Europe, the potential exists for the pandemic to be brought quickly into check. The federal government has set a timeline for a domestic vaccine program that starts in March and that should have everybody who wants it covered by October. Given the continued spread of infections, the government could work hard to begin vaccinations for frontline workers and the elderly as soon as regulatory approvals are given and supplies are available. Successful vaccination programs also bring the prospect of global travel restrictions being lifted and the world economy springing back to life.

Much has changed as a result of the pandemic, with some changes likely to endure. A greater acceptance of working from home has provided many with a better sense of work-life balance. Caring for neighbours and loved ones has been a priority, along with an appreciation of the need for better aged care. Governments put political enmities aside to co-operate with the national cabinet process.

As venture capitalist Paul Bassat told Damon Kitney on Thursday, Australia must be brave in seizing the opportunities presented by COVID. Mr Bassat says the pandemic demonstrated there is a greater preparedness in the community to accept change, which in turn has given politicians a new level of authority. If seized quickly and used well, this movement in community sentiment provides a big opportunity. But it will be easily squandered if politicians fail to manage the transition effectively. The new year is sure to bring change. Away from the haze of pandemic, Australia is well placed to seize the opportunities that will arise.