Nation needs stability now and growth for the future

Australians know in their bones there is no other place they’d rather call home. There is a genius to our social cohesion and diversity. People have never been freer to pursue their dreams, and the sick, poor and migrants are valued and protected through unique equity measures at the core of our society. We are lucky to occupy a continent that produces a bounty that has made us among the world’s richest people. Still, we aspire to even better lives, work hard and adapt to change. From time to time we succumb to complacency and need the nudge of a crisis to meet a challenge head-on. But because we know in our hearts the best days lie ahead, we rarely slip into malaise or indulge in a deep sense of grievance. That’s not our way.

Australians go to the polls hopeful, relieved, but anxious and fatigued by politics. Over the past five weeks the electorate has been bombarded with negative messages and grand promises. Ultimately, voters are making a choice about who they trust to cut through Canberra’s dysfunction and get on with things. The choice of government will also reveal where Australia’s temper stands on the fair go. Scott Morrison pledges “if you have a go, you’ll get a go”. Bill Shorten’s philosophy is different. “When everyday Australians are getting a fair go, then this economy hums,” he says. Mr Morrison lauds individual effort, opportunity and aspiration, while Mr Shorten opts for intervention and redistribution to seek equal outcomes. The gap between the two world views is real and substantial, as big as it has been in decades.

In selling their products, the parties have accentuated differences, often feeding false narratives about failing institutions, public services or safety nets. There are deep fault lines on taxation, wages, superannuation, childcare, health, education, climate change and foreign aid. But there are also scandalous omissions where action and details should be. The Coalition has been near silent on industrial relations and is too timid to revisit a cut in the corporate tax rate for large employers. Labor knows the drivers of investment yet has vacated the debate about how to increase productivity growth and boost living standards. In areas where it has a traditional advantage, Labor has lacked policy certainty. What fiscal impact will a lift in the Newstart allowance have? How much will companies pay to meet a 45 per cent emissions reduction target? Voters deserve better than these elisions. The onus of trust never sleeps.

According to Newspoll, the contest has tightened, the result destined to be decided in a score of seats. The Prime Minister has been the focal point of the Coalition’s campaign, given he is trying to establish his leadership persona and connect with the broader public. Last August he replaced Malcolm Turnbull, who rolled Tony Abbott in 2015. Mr Morrison is pragmatic and a good communicator, and his confidence has grown. But the serial chaos within the Coalition, including the Nationals, has been a deadweight on its support. Mr Morrison has campaigned with energy to get his government within striking distance by finding the middle ground on social and economic issues, where elections are won.

Although the Coalition has had a mixed two terms in office, its record on the economy and border protection is far superior to the six years of Labor rule under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. The labour market reveals the government’s greatest success and exposes its vulnerability. The Coalition boasts of creating 1.3 million jobs and 230,000 small and family businesses. But income growth stalled for several years, leading Mr Shorten to declare the election was simply a referendum on wages. The Coalition’s big play is $302 billion in personal income tax cuts in three stages across a decade. The plan’s virtue is a flattening of the tax brackets, so eventually 94 per cent of taxpayers pay no more than 30c in the dollar. The design flaw is this aspirational structure will not be in place until 2024, two elections away, in the never-never as Labor chides.

Labor has been the frontrunner for years. The election will shed light on whether this is due to public support for its radical agenda or because voters think the Coalition has abandoned its right to govern. Mr Shorten, who won the leadership in October 2013 and performed above expectations at the 2016 poll, has shared the spotlight this time with an experienced inner circle; his personal ratings, especially among women, have lagged behind his Coalition rivals, in part because of his pivotal role in killing off two Labor prime ministers. Mr Shorten made his name as a can-do union official who could identify mutual interests to raise employment and incomes. Mr Shorten, however, is now the frontman for an abrupt change to the nation’s economic model. To Labor’s credit, much of the plan has been argued for since 2016. Mr Shorten is raising taxes on the enterprise class, high earners, savers, investors and retirees, and returning the spoils to the low-paid, young people and welfare recipients. He says he is targeting the “big end of town”, but that is simply not true. Labor’s imposts will hit middle-income families building an asset base and small businesses operating through trusts. As well, rather than reaping a tax windfall from multinationals, Labor is milking high-income earners through a 2 per cent budget repair levy, repeating a bad idea introduced by the Abbott government, and removing concessions for superannuation. Mr Shorten is playing the politics of envy because he can, with all the heavy lifting to achieve a decade of budget surpluses done by people who pay the lion’s share of tax.

Labor is retreating from the nation’s successful synthesis of pro-growth deregulation and social progress. Mr Shorten would give Canberra more control over resource allocation and final say in wages and taxpayer subsidies to unionised workers, and would impose high costs on heavy industry to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Labor will aid the ACTU’s job-destroying push for a “living wage”, restore penalty rates and light the fuse for pattern bargaining. The Coalition is not pure in these anti-markets matters, with its Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro, “big stick” threats of divestment to energy companies, and bank levy. But Labor would intervene in the economy to a degree not seen since the reform era in the 1980s. On social policy, Labor will be tugged to the Left by the extremist Greens it will rely on to pass legislation.

The Australian supports reformist measures that enrich and enlarge the nation. We champion a growing population, sustainable resource, rural and urban development, free trade, free expression of ideas, racial tolerance and the spread of liberal democracy. Since 1964 we have endorsed governments of the centre-Right and centre-Left with agendas that increase employment, living standards and profits, where both labour and capital receive a fair return for their toil and risk. Although Mr Shorten rails against corporate greed — and banks have let down customers and abused trust — the profit share is where it was 50 years ago. The part going to workers is akin to the halcyon days of unionism. Material living standards have doubled over four decades, in line with productivity rises. Yet Mr Shorten is stoking a vibe the system is rigged. Labor has its “fair go deal” the wrong way around. Only when the economy hums can wealth be shared, based on individual effort, not group entitlement. The first principle is a bigger pie. A fair go is a two-way street of give and get, not taken from another’s pocket.

After so much chaos, Mr Morrison is asking voters to “stay the course” under his new leadership. The rolling of Mr Abbott unleashed within Liberals the Labor disease that still lingers. But Mr Morrison has shown he is capable of unifying and stabilising his team. The Coalition is promising to maintain social spending, reduce debt, provide infrastructure and return bracket creep to taxpayers — all without increasing the tax burden. Mr Morrison pledges a conventional formula. It is not a perfect program. A market solution on carbon emissions, for instance, would give investors more certainty, aid energy reliability and reduce costs. Labor has an audacious program of change, but it is the wrong plan for Australia — at any time. Mr Shorten wants to tip the generational scales to young people, run a whatever-it-costs climate change crusade, reduce home prices, boost union power, change the Constitution and control economic levers. Not because it will be good for the nation, but because this agenda can win over the voter types he needs at this election.

Politicians antagonise voters when they promise in poetry and govern in helter-skelter. Mr Morrison’s plan errs on the side of being safe but deliverable; his policies, consistent with traditional values, do not unduly raise expectations as Mr Shorten has done. The Coalition offers prudent fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, a mechanism to reduce tax and control spending, a plan to ease cost-of-living pressures on families, modest and costed emissions cuts in line with global deals, successful border protection and a disciplined approach to our foreign relations. This newspaper recommends a vote for the Coalition because it has a better, more practical and affordable plan than Labor to address the nation’s future challenges.