Mrs Merkel’s invidious choice

Three months after Germany’s inconclusive election, it is still unclear whether Chancellor Angela Merkel can survive the gravest political crisis of her 12 years in power. A last-minute about-face by the main opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has agreed to discuss forming a grand coalition with her Christian Democratic Union, may save her political skin. While such a deal may buy time, it is unlikely to restore the tarnished image and diminishing influence of a leader long seen as the “queen of Europe”. Mrs Merkel felt compelled to seek a new deal with the SPD following the acrimonious collapse of talks aimed at achieving a “Jamaica coalition” involving the CDU’s conservative Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, the pro-business Free Democrats and the Greens. The uncertain situation reflects the strife Mrs Merkel is in on issues such as tax rates, green and coal energy, and especially immigration.

Before the election she was adamant there would be no renewal of the “tombstone coalition” with the centre-left SPD. Like her CDU, which lost nearly 9 per cent of its vote in the election, ending up with 32 per cent of the total, the SPD finished in September with a historically low 20 per cent after shedding 5 per cent of its vote. Both parties are seriously on the nose. German current affairs magazine Der Spiegel summed up the crisis as “Hour zero: country without direction, unity, chancellor?”, while its rival, Stern, depicted Mrs Merkel upside down with the headline “Free fall … end of the Merkel era?” In London, The Times said the Chancellor “looks today to be very close to abdication”.

The remarkable erosion in Mrs Merkel’s position is evident in the fact she is even considering a demand from the SPD for control of the key finance ministry as part of the price for their support. Such a concession would have been unthinkable previously.

One alternative would be for Germany to return to the polls. Neither Mrs Merkel nor SPD leader Martin Schulz wants to take that risk, however, after their poor showings in September when the far-right anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party (AfD) came from nowhere to win more than 13 per cent of the vote. Mrs Merkel and Mr Schulz fear the growth of the AfD, which has entered the Bundestag for the first time. Yet they remain unwilling to learn the obvious lesson of widespread disaffection resulting from Mrs Merkel’s decision to allow as many as 1.6 million so-called refugees into the country in 2015.

That lies at the core of the crisis. Germany is struggling to integrate the newcomers. Whether family members should be allowed to follow them was at the heart of the collapse of talks on formation of Mrs Merkel’s proposed Jamaica coalition. A suggested cap for new entrants of 200,000 merely added to the anxieties of ordinary Germans about how far Mrs Merkel had lost control of the numbers and how out of touch she was with the feelings of many voters.

Europe needs strong leadership to confront Vladimir Putin’s efforts to advance Moscow’s ambitions and deal with the crisis over negotiating Brexit with Britain. Mrs Merkel has joined the long line of Europe’s walking wounded leaders. A regurgitated tombstone coalition with the centre-left SPD, which opened the immigration floodgates, is unlikely to provide it.