Mr Albanese must spend his political capital wisely

Anthony Albanese has started the new parliamentary year with a healthy stock of political capital but he will need to spend it wisely to navigate the many difficult issues across numerous fronts. The Prime Minister has a lot vested in prosecuting a successful Yes campaign for an Indigenous voice to parliament. That task got more difficult on Monday when maverick Greens senator Lidia Thorpe quit her party to “grow and amplify the black sovereign movement” and oppose the voice referendum.

Mr Albanese’s challenge is to build on the centre ground that Newspoll confirmed on Monday still exists for constitutional recognition of an Indigenous voice. He also must hope that plans by the Northern Territory government to introduce new alcohol restrictions will help restore a level of normality to law and order through Central Australia. NT Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has pledged to strengthen alcohol restrictions but said they would not be a return to the Stronger Futures legislation that stemmed from federal intervention. Many voters still will see fixing the issues in Alice Springs as being Mr Albanese’s responsibility and tied to the voice.

More than anything, the fortunes of Mr Albanese and his government will turn on how they manage to balance the cost-of-living pressures being felt throughout the electorate without making the task of taming inflation more difficult. The economy was the focus of opposition questions in parliament on Monday, the first sitting day of the new year. Rising energy prices have become a proxy for the government’s economic management, and market intervention is being used to attack the Albanese team’s fiscal credibility. When added to union-focused industrial relations reforms, the strains are starting to show in the federal government’s relationship with business. In its submission to the budget the peak gas industry group, the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association, called on the government to encourage investment in new gas supply to meet demand and drive down prices, rather than interventionist policies that it said had the opposite effect. Key industry demands included encouraging NSW and Victoria to lift moratoriums that it said were contributing to the highest gas prices in the country.

Tensions over energy have coincided with an erosion of the Prime Minister’s strong personal standing with voters. In the latest Newspoll, Labor maintained a 10-point ­margin over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis. But Mr Albanese’s net approval ­ratings have fallen from plus 33 per cent in December to plus 24 per cent in the latest survey. Peter ­Dutton’s approval rating ­remains largely unchanged at minus 10 per cent. Mr Albanese wants to shift the discussion away from energy towards what he considers to be budget investments in programs aimed at creating jobs and supporting growth. When interviewed last month, Mr Albanese said the economy would be the biggest issue of the year and that Labor had not changed its position on keeping the stage three $21bn-a-year personal income tax cuts. A reconfirmation of the size of the government’s priority challenge will come on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank meets to decide whether to lift official interest rates and, if so, by how much.

Jim Chalmers has assured voters the government has a three-pronged plan to help with the cost of living that includes “responsible” economic relief through cheaper childcare and medicine, addressing the skills crisis and rebuilding supply chains and spending restraint. But the Treasurer confused the government’s economic message with his 6000-word essay published in The Monthly that said he wanted to remake capitalism. The real test is how secure people feel about their jobs, food bills and house prices. Rising energy prices continue to hit the hip pocket and the most politically sensitive nerve.