Moving past the climate agenda

With his international commitments at the G20 and Glasgow climate conference behind him, Scott Morrison must quickly return the focus to a domestic agenda centred on economic recovery and the delivery of post-Covid freedoms. The weak outcome from COP26 should ensure that climate change does not become a defining issue for the Coalition at the coming election. Overall, the Prime Minister was able to navigate the high expectations raised by the Glasgow meeting as well as can be expected. By adopting a net-zero target for 2050, Mr Morrison has put the nation back within the global pack in terms of ambition. This has allowed Australia to seek global co-operation on its technology-first approach to reduce the cost of the transition to a low-emissions future. The government has also been able to strengthen ties with Pacific neighbours through increased climate funding, and to bring Papua New Guinea into an emerging global scheme for forest-based offsets that will also benefit domestic agriculture and regional communities.

But with leaders having jetted out of Glasgow, it is clear that the much-hyped ambitions for the COP26 conference have collided with reality. Failure of the Glasgow talks to produce agreement on greater global ambition or to close the gap between the expectations of developed and developing nations simply underscores the difficulty of the task. Despite months of high-pressure diplomacy by Boris Johnson and Joe Biden’s chief climate negotiator, John Kerry, hopes for a breakthrough at Glasgow effectively crashed when G20 leaders refused to support the headline agenda. The three substantive measures set by Mr Johnson could not achieve consensus agreement. It is clear the deep divisions that exist between developed and developing countries are as big as ever.

Major greenhouse gas emitters, including China and India, have refused to support a 2050 deadline to be carbon neutral. China remains committed to increasing carbon dioxide emissions until 2030 and to strive to be carbon neutral by 2060. India has set a target date of 2070 but says this depends on trillion-dollar funding to make it happen. Meanwhile, a plan to end coal use this decade was rejected by the world’s big coal economies including the US, China, South Africa, Russia and Australia. A global pact promoted by Mr Biden to cut methane emissions by 30 per cent became a petition rather than a conference outcome. After promising to reassert US leadership on the issue of climate change action, Mr Biden’s performance at the Glasgow conference was hamstrung by domestic US politics because congress was unable to deliver funding for his big-spending climate plans. Away from Glasgow there is a growing acceptance of the difficulty of switching away from fossil fuels towards intermittent renewable energy. With gas prices rising due to a post-Covid lift in demand and geopolitical pressure from Russia, coal use is growing not only in China, India and Indonesia, but also in the US, UK and Germany. Negotiations are under way in the EU for gas to be officially recognised as a transitional fuel, a development that has dismayed climate change campaigners. Given the international evidence, Australia clearly has been correct to defend its established coal and gas industries as it puts a focus on developing new technologies including carbon capture and hydrogen.

Corporate enthusiasm to do more is a welcome signal but it must include genuine actions that do not rely on government support that transfers wealth from taxpayers to vested interests. Energy Minister Angus Taylor is right to say it is critical private companies wanting to develop various emissions reductions projects should be able to run under their own steam and not rely on government support. The subdued outcome from Glasgow should ensure climate change does not become a dominant issue at the upcoming federal election. As Paul Kelly writes on Saturday, the big issue for Mr Morrison from Glasgow has not been on climate change but how to defuse the assault launched by French President Emmanuel Macron over the failed submarine deal. Aided by Malcolm Turnbull, Mr Macron has gifted Labor an attack against Mr Morrison focused on truth and trust. Back on home turf, the Prime Minister must waste no time in refocusing attention on the issues that voters really care about. Top of the list must be the economic recovery and return to normal from the Covid-19 crisis.