Morrison stakes centre ground on climate policy

Scott Morrison has taken the pulse of mainstream Australia and built a centrist position on climate change action that puts the onus on science and business ingenuity to set the pace of change. The Prime Minister’s agenda outlined in a speech to the National Press Club on Monday supports a net-zero target as soon as possible, puts technology at the top of the agenda and rules out taxing carbon dioxide emissions as a way to speed the process. It is confirmation of the approach doggedly being pursued by Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor as he tackles the difficult task of reducing emissions from electricity generation without affecting the price or reliability of supply. As we have argued he should, Mr Morrison has favoured a pragmatic response. This will not satisfy those who want more immediate and drastic action or Coalition members who want the government to underwrite new investment in coal-fired power.

By staking out the middle ground, Mr Morrison has made the task more difficult for the opposition, which is signalling its own rethink of its climate change approach. In a shadow cabinet reshuffle last week Anthony Albanese moved his close ally, Mark Butler, from the climate portfolio and replaced him with Chris Bowen. The implication is that the Opposition Leader does not want to risk repeating the mistake of the 2019 election when an ambitious but uncosted climate plan lost the party credibility and votes, particularly in the coalmining regions of Queensland. As things now stand, Labor has a policy for Australia to be carbon neutral by 2050 but no plan for 2030 or 2035 and no explanation of how it plans to achieve its goal.

A key part of Mr Morrison’s approach has been to tackle head-on a perception, reinforced by the opposition and climate activists, that Australia is falling behind the rest of the world on action and that the Coalition is hopelessly divided on the issue. In his press club speech Mr Morrison highlighted the fact Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 3 per cent in the year to June last year, to their lowest levels since 1998. This puts emissions at nearly 17 per cent below 2005 levels, on the way to a 2030 target of 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels. Australia’s performance compares to reductions of about 9 per cent on average across the OECD, 1 per cent in New Zealand and less than 1 per cent in Canada.

The positive news for Australia is reinforced by new figures released on Tuesday that show a record seven gigawatts of new renewable capacity was installed last year, 11 per cent higher than the previous record set in 2019. In 2019, Australia deployed new renewable capacity at least 10 times faster per person than the global average and four times faster per person than China, Europe or the US. Last year Australia invested $7.7bn or $299 per person in renewable energy, more than Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and the US. Australia now has the highest solar capacity per person of any country in the world (644 watts per person) and the highest wind and solar capacity of any country outside Europe (804W per person). These figures provide a credible response to claims of inaction.

The comparison with New Zealand, in particular, illustrates that talking about targets is a very different thing to achieving them. New Zealand has declared a climate emergency and set a net-zero emissions target for 2050. However, to date New Zealand has trailed Australia in action and the country’s Climate Change Commission has said in a draft report released on Sunday that the country must lift its near-term targets by 30 per cent and include agriculture, which currently is exempt.

Mr Morrison says the speed of Australia reaching net zero will be determined by advances made in science and technology needed to transform commercially not only major economies and countries but also the developing world. Australia has set a technology road map and agreed to co-operate with the Biden administration in the US on research and development. Mr Morrison is banking on voters agreeing with him that growing the pie on affordable, low-emissions options through research is a better strategy than trying to modify behaviour through increased taxes. The government has shown it is prepared to support investment in research and development in priority areas including energy storage, carbon capture, hydrogen and lower-emissions steel and cement making. Major corporations increasingly are entering private arrangements to offset their carbon dioxide emissions, including through investment in land-based solutions and regenerative agriculture, opening new business opportunities for Australian farmers. These actions are being taken out of self-interest, not because of government mandate.

By pulling Coalition policy to the centre on climate change, Mr Morrison is working to avoid the pitfalls of former prime ministers Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, who lost their jobs because they were considered to be doing too little or too much on the issue. Mr Morrison is admitting there is a problem and calling on the innovators to get on with the job.