More hot air than energy in Victorian election race

The most substantial policy announcement during campaign launch day in Melbourne on Sunday came from Matthew Guy. Victoria would be reopened for greater gas exploration in a bid to “turbocharge gas production and availability”, the Opposition Leader said. The announcement does not overturn the ban on fracking imposed by his side in 2012 and maintained by Premier Daniel Andrews. Mr Guy is right to oppose Labor’s promise to phase out residential gas use and the Greens’ ridiculous pipe dream to hand out $6000 a home in rebates and zero-interest loans to get one million homes “off gas” and ban new homes from connecting to the network. But the Coalition’s market-skewing pledge to legislate to require 100 per cent of all new gas produced in Victoria to be quarantined for Victorian use could deter investment.

Greater gas supply is what the state and the nation need. The energy crisis loomed large at both campaign launches. Mr Andrews promised another round of the Power Saving Bonus, providing an extra $250 for every Victorian household to offset energy bills. And Mr Guy promised to cover the supply charges on power bills for the first six months of next year, saving households about $235.

Early voting opens on Monday, 12 days from polling day. Newspoll shows the government has a strong lead over the opposition, 54-46, although the gap has narrowed across the past year. Twelve months ago, Labor led the Coalition 58-42 in Newspoll. Mr Andrews remains the preferred premier over Mr Guy, 52-33, with 15 per cent of voters undecided. Two unknown factors could influence the final outcome. One, to what degree will voters punish Mr Andrews for imposing the world’s longest lockdown during the pandemic, plus curfews, and for his government’s poor integrity record? And two, to what extent will the Greens and the Climate 200-funded so-called independents manage to translate their support into seats?

Victoria’s debt outlook is the worst in Australia. As a counterpoint to the Premier’s vision of an ever-enlarging government footprint, the opposition has promised to end “Daniel Andrews’ era of spiralling debt and higher taxes”. It also has promised major health spending, funded by scrapping Mr Andrews’ planned suburban rail loop project. Mr Guy’s promise to cut or reduce payroll tax for 28,000 small businesses is a more conventional Coalition promise that will benefit that sector. The state’s debt, as the opposition likes to point out, exceeds that of NSW, Queensland and Tasmania combined. Ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has questioned how election promises can be paid for without risking a further downgrade of the state’s credit rating, which was cut to AA during the pandemic. That has not deterred Mr Andrews’ major infrastructure plans.

On Sunday, his focus was on social spending, including the introduction of an extra year of education, pre-prep, a major upgrade of schools for special-needs children, and a program to build 50 government-funded and operated childcare centres. The government also will support 10,000 secondary school students with a week of work experience in clean energy, nursing, trades or early childhood education. In response to staff shortages in the health system, degrees in nursing and midwifery are to be free in Victoria, with a $5000 sign-on bonus for nursing and midwifery graduates joining the public system. “All of this progress is on the ballot in November,” Mr Andrews boasted in a video played ahead of his speech. “If you like it, you’ve got to vote for it. If you want it, you’ve got to fight for it.” And pay for it. As a heckler reminded Mr Andrews last week: “It’s taxpayers’ money, not your money, that you’re splashing around.”