Midterms reflect divided nation

It should be no surprise if, as polls predict, Joe Biden’s Democrats take a beating in the US midterm elections on Wednesday (Australian time). It is what normally happens to the party of first-term presidents in the first midterms two years after a presidential election, however big the win. The one certainty is that Donald Trump will claim a sweeping victory for himself regardless of the outcome. But in the 2018 midterms Mr Trump lost 42 seats in the House of Representatives to the Democrats, although Republicans held the Senate.

Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama all won presidential elections by commanding margins. But their parties also lost significant ground in the midterms that followed. Reagan had achieved one of the highest approval ratings of any new president. Yet Democrats were able to cement their hold on the House of Representatives, winning the overall vote by almost 12 points. Mr Clinton’s first midterms in 1994 were a disaster for him. The Republicans gained eight Senate seats and 54 in the house. Yet, working across the aisle with Republicans, he became so popular that he won a rousing presidential re-election victory two years later. Mr Obama conceded that voters had given him a “shellacking” in his first midterms in 2010, losing control of the house. Yet, unlike Mr Trump, he went on to win a second term.

Given Mr Biden’s age and the hip-pocket crisis the US is in with soaring inflation, which polls show voters blame on the President, a bad result will not help whatever unrealistic dreams he may have for a second term. Mr Trump, after hand-picking and endorsing 200 Republican candidates, is poised to claim another stupendous, ego-driven victory for himself. But history shows losing congressional control is not necessarily a disaster for incumbent presidents. If Republicans win they are expected to dismantle the congressional committee investigating the attack on the US Capitol on January 6 last year. If Republicans win the house, the Senate or both, they will share responsibility with Mr Biden for what does or does not get done.

A new legislative and administrative logjam at the heart of US government would usher in another stage in attempts by the world’s most powerful nation to overcome the profound divisions tearing at the heart of its society. The stakes are enormous. As foreign editor Greg Sheridan wrote on Monday: “It’s all going to be a terrific muddle. The truth is American voters want neither Biden nor Trump. But getting what they want in elections is proving extraordinarily difficult.”