Mideast peace efforts undone

After a welcome period of relative peace during the Trump administration, things have returned to a depressingly familiar pattern of Israeli-Palestinian violence. A resumption of rocket attacks against Israel and a predictably heavy military response have been sparked by a set of complex circumstances. Underneath them, however, is political instability on both sides. Hamas is attempting to assert itself after Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas abruptly cancelled long-awaited elections last month. Meanwhile, the eruption of conflict has allowed Israel’s long-serving Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to boost his claim to retaining power after a series of elections failed to provide a pathway for the installation of a majority national government. As a consequence of renewed hostilities between old enemies, the green shoots of a broader regional peace negotiated by Donald Trump’s special envoy, Jared Kushner, are withering fast.

As Israel has pushed back against provocations from Hamas, the regional governments that had started down a road to normalcy with Israel through the Abraham Accords — including United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco — have all sided with the Palestinians. All of the gains achieved under Mr Trump seem to have been wasted, with Arab scholars saying the resumption of violence will take things back to “square zero”. As the military confrontation has escalated throughout the week, demonstrations have flared across the Middle East, with groups chanting their solidarity with the Palestinians and claiming liberation of the Palestinian territories is their duty. The conflict has given Hamas a way to show the Biden administration that it still has influence and must be a party to negotiations. Iran, the real power behind Hamas, is taking the opportunity to test US resolve in the Middle East under Joe Biden. Iran has called for the international community to act against Israel. A new flare-up of violence in Yemen is another indication of the broader geopolitical dynamic to test the new US administration.

For Washington, a resurgence of Israeli-Palestinian violence is an unwelcome distraction. The US is tightly focused on its deteriorating relationship with China in the Indo-Pacific and the expansionist threat posed by Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said department officials would travel to the region to urge “de-escalation of violence”. Israel says about 1500 rockets had been launched into its territory by Thursday, with seven people killed, including a six-year-old. There also has been a surge in violence between Arabs and Jews inside Israel, with a rapid deterioration in Jerusalem, a city already divided into enclaves. Mr Netanyahu is warning of a potential for civil war, saying Israel is now fighting on two fronts. Israel “unquestionably has the right to defend itself and its people”, as Scott Morrison says.

A UN Security Council meeting will discuss the breakdown of peace on Monday, after the US refused to support a Friday conference. In the meantime, Israel has launched a full-scale retaliation against Hamas. During the week Israel launched airstrikes against 500 terrorist hideouts and weapons dumps in Gaza, including a 12-storey Hamas building. Three of Islamic Jihad’s top commanders were killed, as well as at least 20 civilians, including 10 children. The Israel Defence Forces said on Thursday a ground offensive had begun with air and ground attacks as troops amassed on the border. Mr Netanyahu said the Israeli military operation against Palestinian militants in Gaza would continue for as long as necessary. Hamas would pay a heavy price, he said. A Hamas military spokesman said the group was ready to teach Israel’s military “harsh lessons” should it decide to go ahead with a ground incursion.

The world no doubt will be awash soon with images of the suffering of Palestinians who have been robbed of the chance of free elections, then plunged back into violence. Israel again is forced to defend its right to exist. Efforts to bring a new era of peace and co-operation to the region have been undone again and will be difficult to restore.