Losses feed Putin’s self-delusion

The full implications of Ukraine’s deadly New Year’s Eve rocket attack in which scores of Vladimir Putin’s soldiers are claimed to have been killed or wounded have yet to emerge. But what is clear is that the biggest and arguably most embarrassing loss of life for the Kremlin’s forces in any single attack since the war began 11 months ago will add significantly to apprehensions about Mr Putin’s mindset and intentions as he responds to accelerating battlefield reverses.

Only hours before Kyiv used US-supplied HIMAR rocket systems to launch high-explosive warheads at a barracks housing hundreds of Russian soldiers in the city of Makiivka, near Donetsk, Mr Putin, in a national address, provided further evidence of the parallel universe opponents say he is living in. Ignoring the reality that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine, he claimed Russia was fighting a desperate battle for its national sovereignty and independence. “Defending our motherland is the sacred duty we owe to our ancestors and descendants,” he declared, as he proclaimed 2022 “a year of important steps towards reclaiming Russia’s full sovereignty”. “For years, Western elites hypocritically assured us of their peaceful intentions … but in fact they encouraged the neo-Nazis (in Ukraine) in every possible way,” he said, speaking against a backdrop of Russian soldiers in combat fatigues.

To describe the New Year’s Eve address as bizarre, as Kremlin observers have, is to underplay its significance at a critical time in the Ukraine conflict. It is more than that. The contrast from a year ago, when Mr Putin spoke of New Year’s Eve as “literally filled with good cheer and happy thoughts”, could not have been greater or more portentous. Mr Putin’s ill-conceived, unprovoked Ukraine invasion has changed that. Mr Putin’s constant theme in recent weeks has been that Moscow is on the defensive, forced to fight or risk losing its physical and cultural identity. Ominously, there have been repeated references, too, to his massive stockpile of 5977 nuclear warheads and his orders to military chiefs to ensure it is in good working order. Yet the reality as he mercilessly rains down terror on Ukraine’s men, women and children, cruelly weaponising even freezing winter temperatures to maximise their agony, is that he cannot even protect his soldiers billeted in barracks in Makiivka. Nor can he protect key infrastructure such as the Crimean bridge from Ukrainian destruction.

No wonder anti-war sentiment is growing in Russia amid reports that at least 23 members of the country’s mostly wealthy Putin critics have died in mysterious circumstances in recent months. The unexplained deaths in falls from hotel windows in India and elsewhere have raised suspicions about the long arm of the tyrant’s hit squads. The Kremlin may deny that their deaths are a direct result of the reign of terror unleashed by Mr Putin. But the unrelenting criminal horror he unleashes each day on Ukraine shows there is no limit to the depths of his depravity when he is under pressure.

And Mr Putin clearly is under immense pressure as the first anniversary of his “special operation” in Ukraine approaches and he finds his invasion floundering. The parallel universe of self-delusion and megalomania he is in adds immeasurably to the dangers. Despite the setbacks he is suffering, the unhinged Russian despot remains capable of anything, including the use of nuclear weapons. The free world must be prepared for any eventuality.