Lessons learned as states approach Omicron peak

On one of the worst days for Covid deaths in Australia, case numbers, hospitalisation rates and patient numbers in intensive care units offer reason to hope that the nation is close to the peak of the Omicron variant, especially in our largest state, NSW, as chief medical officer Paul Kelly suggested on Thursday. Queensland’s chief health officer, John Gerrard, agrees. He expects case numbers in his state, especially on the Gold Coast, to peak in a fortnight and then at different stages across Queensland’s vast, diverse expanse. On a national level, difficult decisions remain in managing Omicron, on such issues as supply chains, labour shortages and the return to school. NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews agree that school should resume as scheduled. Queensland and South Australia have delayed their starting dates by a fortnight, to better suit those states’ expected peaks.

Time will tell if the anticipated decline in cases will see the end of the pandemic. After the hardships of the past two years, and the problems caused by the milder Omicron variant, it would be prudent, as Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar says, to “not celebrate prematurely”.

A waning of Omicron will be welcome news for business and economic activity. While there is no official lockdown, business conditions, especially in the centre of major cities, are tough, experiencing an official “shadow lockdown’’ as workers and shoppers stay home and shops experience shortages just as city areas would normally be springing to life after summer breaks. Data collected by Google shows the number of people in central Sydney workplaces and stores is well down on the pre-pandemic baseline – by 31 per cent and 49 per cent respectively.

As the peak of Omicron nears, important lessons are clear, especially the importance of vaccines in preserving lives and health. The figures do not lie. Unvaccinated people are 163 times more likely to end up in intensive care in NSW if they catch Covid-19 and 83 times more likely to be hospitalised, an analysis of epidemiological data reveals. Of the 29 people who died from Covid-19 in NSW on Friday, 19 were vaccinated and 10 were not vaccinated. Considering that 95 per cent of the state’s adult population is fully vaccinated, the deaths in the unvaccinated are grossly disproportionate. On Friday, half of the 112 patients in Victoria’s ICU units with Covid came from the 6 per cent of the Victorian population who were unvaccinated. And 60 per cent of the state’s recent Covid deaths were people aged 50 to 100 who had not been vaccinated. In Queensland, all three of the patients whose deaths from Covid were reported on Friday, in their 60s and 70s, were unvaccinated.

The vast majority of Australians understand the importance of vaccines. As of Friday, 92.4 per cent of people aged 16 and over were fully vaccinated. More than 4.6 million people aged 18 and over had received booster shots, including 254,000 in the previous 24 hours. The race to vaccinate as many children as possible before the start of the school year is on. As of Friday, 6.5 per cent of children aged five to 11 had received one dose of a vaccine.

The past few days have necessitated a delicate balancing act between maintaining economic activity and vital services such as hospital care and protecting close contacts from the virus. It makes sense that asymptomatic close contacts of Covid patients, whose rapid antigen tests show they are clear of the virus, should work. The shortage of RATs, however, is a more serious problem than whether they should be free. Most people would willingly pay, if they were available. More should have been ordered, earlier, and they should have been approved for personal use sooner.