Lessons from the coronavirus

University campuses will feel like different places this semester with as many as one in 10 students absent, at home in China because of the coronavirus. In an over-reaction, Chinese authorities have accused the Morrison government of succumbing to “panic and over-action” in stopping flights between the two countries. But most students and their families are unlikely to blame Australia for the situation. They are familiar with the extreme quarantine measures in China and are likely to regard Australia’s travel ban as reasonable. That said, it is vital that Australian universities be proactive in putting the students’ interests first. In addition to fulfilling their duty of care, universities are well aware that rival education exporters such as Britain and Canada have not imposed travel bans.

The university that has provided the most extensive response so far, higher education editor Tim Dodd wrote on Wednesday, is the Australian National University. ANU is offering free online courses to commencing students affected by the travel ban if they cannot make it to campus in time for first semester, which starts next week; they can study on campus if they arrive before March 31. ANU also is offering students late withdrawal without penalty (financial or academic) from first semester courses. And if those who make a late start to the semester because of the travel bans fail a subject, they will be allowed to repeat courses without paying fees again. Other institutions are offering later start dates for first semester. Such measures will be helpful for Chinese students travelling to Australia after a 14-day break en route in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia. That approach to getting around the direct travel ban — calculated from individuals’ departure from China until their arrival in Australia — was “perfectly within the guidelines”, Education Minister Dan Tehan confirmed on Thursday’s front page.

Nearly 100,000 Chinese students have been affected by the travel ban, which has been extended another week until February 29. If they all miss first semester the cost to the universities will be about $2bn. Provided the students return for semester two and go on to complete their degrees, the revenue will be postponed rather than lost, eventually costing universities about $40m — chickenfeed for the sector, as Dodd wrote on Wednesday.

But should the crisis continue into next semester, Centre for Independent Studies adjunct scholar Salvatore Babones calculates the education export sector stands to lose $2.8bn to $3.8bn. The Group of Eight elite universities would be hardest hit. Regardless of cost, the looming crunch underlines the heavy dependence of Australian universities on China. In November last year, Chinese enrolments at Australian universities totalled almost 160,000, accounting for 39 per cent of total foreign students at universities. The Chinese provided at least 20 per cent of revenue at institutions such as the universities of NSW and Sydney, and University of Technology Sydney. As one retired vice-chancellor said this week, many of the nation’s richest universities have been “sipping the Kool-Aid” without making sufficient efforts to diversify their enrolments and budgets. Their need to pursue alternative income sources is clear. After China, the largest number of overseas students come from India. But Indian students accounted for less than half the number of Chinese last year, followed by relatively small numbers from Nepal, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

As well as being Australia’s fourth largest export behind coal, iron ore and natural gas, educating overseas students fosters vital bonds between Australia and well-educated people from other nations. While doing everything reasonable to cushion the impact of the travel bans on Chinese students, universities also must take a long-term view to broaden their financial and enrolment bases.