Lessons from Covid resurgence

Australia’s success in suppressing the COVID-19 virus has been underlined by Boris Johnson’s grim announcement that England has been forced into a stringent, second-wave lockdown amid fears surging infection rates could overwhelm medical services by the first week of December. As the northern hemisphere winter sets in, Mr Johnson, who is being criticised for his chaotic, incoherent response to the pandemic, spoke on Saturday of a looming “medical and moral disaster” in which “doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would get oxygen and who wouldn’t, who would live and who would die”. The British cabinet was warned daily COVID-19 deaths could soon reach 4000 and “the reasonable worst case scenario of 85,000 deaths by the end of winter (the basis for National Health Service planning) will be breached”.

Imperial College, London, underscored the depth of the crisis with research showing 100,000 people a day across Britain were being infected. On September 1 there were 50 COVID-19 patients on ventilators in England. Last Wednesday there were 788. The UK has so far recorded more than 1 million cases and 46,555 deaths. Under fierce criticism from his own MPs, Mr Johnson expressed regret in reimposing a lockdown that could run until Christmas. But he is not alone in facing a resurgent wave of the virus.

Germany, once regarded as the exemplar in the European response to COVID-19, with its effective test-and-tracing system, has also been forced into a strict second lockdown. So has France, where Emmanuel Macron has barred virtually all activity deemed non-essential. Infection rates and deaths in France are at their highest level since April. On Thursday authorities reported 47,637 cases and 235 new deaths. Belgium, Spain, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic are also facing infection and death rates greater than during the first wave. Sweden, which controversially avoided lockdowns during the first wave, is also facing a resurgent virus that has led to a record daily 2820 infections. It has the worst death rate of any Nordic country.

Europe is, however, being outpaced by the US. Despite Donald Trump’s constant refrain that “we’re rounding the turn” and “it’ll disappear soon”, with daily infection rates not seen since the start of the pandemic. On Friday, 99,321 new cases were recorded — the fifth daily record set by the US over an eight-day period. The University of Washington forecasts the US COVID-19 death toll will be 400,000 by the end of the year. Dr Anthony Fauci, the US’s leading infectious diseases expert, says the country is “in for a whole lot of hurt … you could not be positioned more poorly”. Stanford University estimates 700 people have died and 30,000 have been infected by attending 18 of Mr Trump’s election rallies. On our first national zero community transmission day since June 9, Australia has much to be thankful for. But the virus’s surging across Europe and the US is a warning. We do not want to be forced into another crippling lockdown.