Labor, riding high, should be careful what it promises

Three-and-a-half years after Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott as prime minister in 2015 citing the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row’’ as a key reason for the challenge, the Liberal Party remains racked by the former leaders’ acrimony towards each other and related ideological divisions. Today’s Newspoll — the 50th in a row since September 2016 in which the Coalition has trailed Labor — is ominous for the Morrison government as it approaches the election in May. Over the past fortnight, it has dropped back to again trail Labor 46 to 54 on the two-party preferred vote. The disheartening result for the government suggests the row over the medivac bill and border security has failed to make an impression on voters. A two-point rise in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation from 5 per cent to 7 per cent will reinforce the concern of Coalition MPs in provincial and rural Queensland who want Scott Morrison to fast-track a decis­ion on the underwriting of a new, cleaner coal plant and revive laws to break up state-owned generators. Such moves, however, would be staunchly opposed by many Liberals in urban seats, especially in Victoria.

The poll coincides with Mr Turnbull’s bizarre claim in London that he was dumped last August because conservatives in the party feared he would win the coming election. Unless he wants the Prime Minister to lose to Bill Shorten, which would be the height of disloyalty from a former party leader, the comment suggests Mr Turnbull failed to learn the lessons of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd imbroglio from 2009 to 2013. As Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese said two years ago, “I’ve seen this movie before. I know how it ends. It ends really, really badly.’’ Internal party disunity invariably does.

Much depends, of course, on the April 2 budget and the parties’ final election promises, including the battle over personal tax cuts and wages. On Saturday, we reported that the Morrison government was considering deeper personal tax cuts. These would be a counter punch to the Opposition Leader’s push to put wages growth front and centre of its election campaign. In light of the Newspoll trend, that policy and its potential effects on jobs and economic growth warrant close scrutiny.

Opposition finance spokesman Jim Chalmers’ comment yesterday that the Fair Work Commission would be made to “share the priorities of an incoming Labor government” suggested a Shorten government would legislate to force the industrial umpire to deliver better wage outcomes to 2.3 million low-paid workers. The party must spell out the details of how it would make the current system, designed by Labor, even more rigid and centrist. Sustained wages growth, Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Tania Constable pointed out yesterday, depends on improving productivity and profits, which would be undermined by Labor’s policy to reintroduce Sunday penalties.

As Paul Kelly wrote on Saturday, many party leaders destroy their prospects in office by crazy pledges in opposition. He cautioned Mr Shorten against “offering the unions so much that his prospects in office are fatally compromised’’. With Labor riding high in the polls, it was good advice.