Kiwis opt for caution as world battles to open up

Most nations, in opening up from the Covid-19 pandemic, accept that doing so carries some risk from living with the virus. Not so New Zealand, where elimination of the virus will remain the Ardern government’s strategy for the rest of the year at least. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has accepted the advice of her government’s expert panel, which wants New Zealand to attempt to keep the virus out of the country indefinitely, even after the population is largely vaccinated.

As in Australia, supply problems and isolation from the worst of the pandemic overseas have left New Zealand behind much of the world on vaccines. Only 21.5 per cent of eligible Kiwis are fully vaccinated (compared with 24.3 per cent of Australians) and about 35 per cent of Kiwis (and 46 per cent of Australians) have had one jab. But also as in Australia, the pace is picking up across the Tasman. From the beginning of next month, every New Zealander aged 16 and older will be eligible for a Pfizer shot – the only Covid vaccine approved for use in the country.

Experience overseas in the US, Britain, parts of Europe and Israel shows Ms Ardern is correct when she says opening up too early in the vaccine rollout process can result in significant Covid breakouts. Striking a balance is vital. But little is certain in dealing with Covid-19 or managing recovery. Nations can make their own decisions only based on local considerations while drawing on overseas experience. New Zealand will look at opening quarantine-free travel to vaccinated travellers from low-risk countries from the first quarter of next year.

But unlike Australia, New Zealand is not linking different phases of opening up with particular levels of vaccination coverage. Guided by modelling advice to the national cabinet from the Doherty Institute, Scott Morrison has linked the next phases of relaxing restrictions in Australia, including opening up travel, to achieving targets of 70 or 80 per cent vaccination.

While Ms Ardern’s goal is for her nation to remain Covid-free and stamp on any outbreaks quickly, even a single case can have dire consequences, especially with the highly infectious Delta strain. The ACT now is locked down after three new cases of the virus were reported, taking the territory’s total to four. Three cases were confirmed late on Thursday. The three were close contacts of a man in his 20s from Gunghalin in Canberra’s north.

Despite ongoing vaccine hesitancy, one of the few certainties is the efficacies of vaccinations. Of 62 people requiring intensive care treatment in NSW after contracting Covid-19, 57 were not vaccinated, NSW deputy chief health officer Marianne Gale confirmed on Thursday. The remaining five had one dose of AstraZeneca or Pfizer. Three of the 62 people are in their 20s, seven are in their 30s, five in their 40s, 13 in their 50s, 13 in their 60s, 19 in their 70s and two in their 80s. On the positive side, a new vaccination record was set in NSW on Wednesday with 106,000 people receiving jabs, a figure Premier Gladys Berejiklian said gave her hope. But the outlook is still grim, with 345 cases of community transmission recorded overnight on Wednesday.

After almost seven weeks, the lockdown is having a devastating economic impact on parts of NSW. But in the middle of the stubborn outbreak, Ms Berejiklian, in contrast to New Zealand’s inward-looking approach, is looking ahead, offering NSW residents the prospect of some restrictions being relaxed when 50 per cent of the population has been vaccinated. Rejecting the idea she is offering false hope, she understandably is looking to provide an incentive: “If you are fully vaccinated you might be able to undertake an activity which you can’t now; well, that is a positive. I think most people would appreciate that.”