Keep calm and make a curry

On Thursday Scott Morrison explained that every Australian had a responsible role to play in the evolving coronavirus outbreak. The coming months will test our resolve and the Prime Minister urged common sense. Medical officials, although reluctant to release such information, have modelled best and worst-case health scenarios. At the top end, according to Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy, it’s “some millions of people being infected over a period of several weeks”. Health authorities have a pandemic game plan that is being rolled out as events demand. Travel bans, in place for China and Iran, were extended to South Korea on Thursday; travellers from Italy now would be subjected to enhanced screening. These moves, of course, merely will delay the inevitable. Bad news will accumulate and the disruption to normal life will intensify.

But the combination of containment action and time, aided by geography, has given officials a chance to prepare. Mr Morrison and Dr Murphy maintain people should go about their business, unless they are experiencing flu-like symptoms; in that case, they should isolate themselves. Most people are listening and some 10,000 people have already been tested. Still, there is often little that can be said to dissuade the herd. The run on toilet paper prompted Dr Murphy to reiterate there was “no need to denude the shelves of lavatory paper in the supermarket”.

So far, the Morrison government has deftly handled its messaging, which has been a template for state governments. Health Minister Greg Hunt described the approach to information releases as “transparent, early and frequent”. They will be held to these sound principles as the COVID-19 contagion spreads. The government is battling a trust deficit, especially after the bushfires crisis, but also evidenced by the panic buying of supplies. As we said last Saturday, social bonds are being tested by the epidemic. On Thursday, Mr Morrison spoke about the isolation many people would soon face, especially in rural areas, without access to food home delivery services. “Make them a curry and take it around if they need one,” he advised.

Nations now are scrambling to limit health risks. At face value it appears the daily number of new cases in China may have peaked. Iran, Italy and South Korea are the epicentres of infections. Schools have closed in Italy, workers are being advised to stay home and public events are being cancelled. In NSW, human-to-human transmission is gathering pace, with Health Minister Brad Hazzard declaring it a “war against coronavirus”. After an outbreak at a Sydney aged-care facility, where a resident died and three others were infected, workers collectively called in sick. Damned if they work, damned if they don’t; these dilemmas and snap actions will become the norm, with state medical workers called in to help the aged. On Thursday we reported a row between Canberra and NSW over emergency funding. Mr Morrison confirmed costs would be shared.

With person-to-person transmission here six weeks ahead of initial forecasts, emergency infrastructure is being put in place. In Queensland, authorities said the state’s contingency planning assumed at least 25 per cent of the population would be infected in the “first wave”. But the state’s Chief Health Officer, Jeannette Young, said advance planning meant infection rates would likely be lower than in China, which was in the middle of an outbreak before they even knew they had it.

This week we’ve considered in this space the likely economic blowback, ahead of the Morrison government’s targeted fiscal package. The damage to the budget and national output could be substantial. But COVID-19 is mainly a health crisis. Workplaces, schools, shops and events will be disrupted; labs, hospitals, GP clinics, pharmacies and aged-care homes will experience severe strains. Infection numbers will zoom up in geometric progression. Normal programming could be months away. This will test our national equanimity as much as medical systems, leadership and economic resilience. Through the years, Australians have been strong in a crisis — war, bushfire, flood, cyclone, epidemic and economic shock. To draw on one of Mr Morrison’s usages, we will soon find out just how good is Australia.