Japan’s technical expertise will strengthen AUKUS

The expected announcement that Japan will become AUKUS’s first “Pillar II” advanced technology partner is important for the pact and the crucial role envisaged for it, deterring Chinese aggression. The move might not lead to Japan becoming a fourth full member of the alliance, between Australia, the US and Britain, which is likely to be one of the most consequential military alliances of the modern era. But it is not far short of that. The significance of what has been referred to as “JAUKUS” cannot be overstated in terms of what Japan, one of the world’s foremost leaders in new technology, can bring to the table, and strategic symbolism.

While Beijing “turbocharges” its building of submarines to challenge Washington’s naval superiority, Tokyo’s involvement transforms AUKUS from being an alliance among old allies to work together to build nuclear-powered submarines, to one that will include a leading Asian nation. The importance of that to the Indo-Pacific region is likely to be significant.

Japan’s role as AUKUS’s advanced technology partner is likely to be vital in developing the hi-tech weapons needed to deter China’s, as Ben Packham reported on Monday. Pillar II will focus on the hypersonic, AI and autonomous systems, quantum computing, advanced cyber technologies and electronic warfare capabilities that are envisaged for the Australian submarines.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet Joe Biden at the White House this week to cement the biggest upgrade in the US-Japan security alliance since 1960. Along with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, they will take part in a US-Japan-Philippines summit that will focus on the South China Sea, where China has forcefully laid claim to islands and outcrops that are part of Manila’s sovereign territory.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has also emphasised that when they are delivered, the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines could potentially play a decisive role in any conflict across the Taiwan Strait. “I would argue that working closely with other nations, not just diplomatically but in defence avenues, has the consequences of strengthening peace and stability more generally,” he said.

NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, leader of the world’s most powerful military alliance, warned in a weekend BBC interview of an “alliance of authoritarian powers giving each other support that is more and more aligned”. He no doubt had China, Russia and North Korea in mind as he signalled the need for NATO to become more directly involved in the Pacific, especially in helping democratic nations such as Japan and South Korea.

It may be that, as reported, suggestions Tokyo should become a full AUKUS member were ruled out by concerns that Japan still lacks the security systems to protect highly sensitive information. But its involvement in Pillar II is a timely shot in the arm for the project amid concern about delays to the Virginia-class submarines Australia is hoping to get from the US by the early 2030s. A US Navy investigation shows construction of two of the initial submarines are 36 months and 24 months late.

The Wall Street Journal reports China has settled on new designs that could triple its production rate of submarines over that of the US. In its recent assessment of the Chinese military, the Pentagon forecast China will have a fleet of 80 attack and ballistic missile submarines by 2035, up from 60 at the end of 2023. The US Navy’s most optimistic scenario is that it will have 50 in 2036 and that if a construction rate of two per year, up from the current rate of 1.2, is achieved, it will have 66 attack subs in 2049. The AUKUS subs, with the best possible technical capability, should not be delayed.