It’s time for Dan Andrews to seek more outside help

Given the monumental challenges facing Victoria as it attempts to navigate its way out of harsh COVID-19 lockdown measures, it is possible to have some compassion for Premier Daniel Andrews. Despite his authoritarian response, poor consultation and reluctance to seek expert help from outside his state, Mr Andrews no doubt is motivated by a desire to keep people safe.

The point has been reached, however, to acknowledge that events in Victoria are out of control and the costs and benefits from continuing the tough measures as outlined by Mr Andrews in his road map must be assessed more fully. It is time for Victoria to accept an intervention. This may be a difficult position for the Premier and his small band of advisers to accept, but now more than ever Victoria needs support, guidance and assistance from experts outside of their immediate sphere.

The admission by Mr Andrews’s top health official, Brett Sutton, that the Victorian government did not discuss the state’s coronavirus road map with the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, the peak national public health emergency body, before it was announced on Sunday is a concern. Professor Sutton said no one had as good a view of Victoria’s industry, population and epidemiology as the state officials involved in devising the road map. Likewise, Mr Andrews’s public assurance that the state’s supercomputer knows best is further evidence that the Premier needs to expand his view.

The road map outlined by Mr Andrews on Sunday promises weeks more lockdowns, curfews and restrictions that pose an uncertain future for Victorian households and industry. This must be considered the worst-case scenario, but the messaging with which the road map was delivered inspires little confidence that Victorians will be out of lockdown for Christmas.

The strain of the second wave of infections in Victoria and the missteps by government clearly are taking their toll on the Premier, who has overly personalised the challenge of confronting the pandemic. Mr Andrews is wasting energy putting himself out in public each day when he should be working to gain a better and broader perspective. The Premier needs to lessen the pressure on himself and share responsibility more. For business, he must disentangle himself from the hold of the health bureaucracy and immediate events to be able to look beyond the horizon.

The key performance indicators for Professor Sutton are, rightly, to reduce infections and casualties at all costs. These are KPIs that are not necessarily shared by Mr Andrews.

For guidance, Mr Andrews can look to NSW where, given the numbers of COVID-19 infections, citizens would be locked down under Victoria’s plan. Instead, in NSW there is no curfew, shops are open and the economy is rebuilding, with 314,000 jobs that were gone in the first lockdown now back. Mr Andrews has said the situations in NSW and Victoria are not comparable, but if there is a key difference it is in the quality and efficiency of contact tracing that has allowed NSW to avoid having to impose a community-wide lockdown.

The failings of the Victorian government when the second-wave outbreak surfaced are well documented. More important is what has happened in the past five weeks of lockdown in Victoria and why there still are cases that cannot be accounted for. This suggests poor data handling and a contact-tracing regime that is not up to scratch. Shortcomings in these areas have been covered over by more restrictive measures that might well promise greater and costlier long-term consequences. It may be easier for government to impose a one-size-fits-all approach rather than identifying hotspots and Mr Andrews may be correct that having a curfew makes things easier for police, but that is not the point. What is easier is not necessarily right.

Ultimately, health is a state responsibility and, to date, Scott Morrison has been charitable in his comments and offers of help for Victoria. But what happens in Victoria matters nationally and there are signs that commonwealth patience is wearing thin. As national affairs editor Simon Benson has written there are now fundamental disagreements between the commonwealth, including medical experts, and the Andrews government.

The image being presented from Canberra is that the Andrews government has no idea how to manage the crisis and has become fixated on managing the spin. The message is that the federal government is unwilling to pick up the bill for Victoria’s continuing incompetence.

Mr Andrews needs help and he must be willing to accept the best available from other states and nationally. It is the compassionate thing to do for the millions of Victorians who are quickly losing faith in what their tomorrows may hold.