It’s back to the future with Nationals’ Barnaby Joyce

Having returned to the leadership of the Nationals and the role of deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce says he has learnt his lessons and will bring a new maturity to the table. Scott Morrison must take Mr Joyce at his word. But there is an enormous weight of expectation from supporters that Mr Joyce will advocate more forcefully for his party and will make life more difficult for the Prime Minister.

After consulting with his party, Mr Joyce will outline a new Coalition agreement that is expected to call for more portfolio responsibility for the Nationals. Mr Joyce no doubt will speak out more forcefully on issues such as climate policy where Mr Morrison has been working assiduously to build a middle-ground truce within the Coalition that also can translate into a credible position for Australia internationally and with the community at large.

The deposing of former Nationals leader Michael McCormack breaks the incumbency spell that has protected other party leaders throughout the pandemic. It marks an unwelcome reminder of the revolving-door syndrome in which deposed leaders destabilise a party as they plot their return. Monday’s spill was the second time in 15 months that a motion had been called in the party after Mr Joyce fell short of winning the numbers in a leadership ballot in February last year against Mr McCormack. Mr Joyce resigned as deputy prime minister in 2018 following weeks of fallout over his affair with former staff member Vikki Campion.

Welcoming Mr Joyce to the Nationals leadership, Mr Morrison said from quarantine at The Lodge that he looked forward to working closely together to ensure Australia continued its recovery from Covid-19 and the recession it caused. He said the Liberal-Nationals Coalition had been a successful and enduring partnership for seven decades and it would continue to be a strong partnership, one based on shared values and a shared passion for building an even stronger Australia.

For Mr Joyce, success in regaining the leadership marks a rehabilitation from a disgrace brought about through personal choices and his own behaviour. While his personal life with a new partner and two small children has stabilised, questions still are being asked about sexual harassment claims made against him before he resigned and which he firmly denies.

“I acknowledge my faults and I resigned as I should and did; I spent three years on the backbench and I hope I come back a better person,” Mr Joyce told reporters after his win. “Hopefully one learns from mistakes and makes themselves a better person.”

Humble in demeanour, Mr Joyce sought to characterise his victory as a win for regional Australia. Mr McCormack was very dignified in the aftermath of the spill and described the events of the day as “democracy in action”. Replacing Mr McCormack with Mr Joyce is a decision entirely for the Nationals’ parliamentary team. It will reset the contest for the federal election and probably ensure the Nationals have a sharper cut-through in the community, perhaps more so with city voters than its rural base.

It is difficult to say that Mr McCormack was rejected by his team because he lacked electoral appeal or performance. As analysis published on Tuesday shows, Mr Joyce performed well for the Nationals in the 2016 federal election in which Malcolm Turnbull struggled to maintain government. Mr McCormack held on to the gains at the 2019 federal election when the Nationals were under attack from minority parties.

Mr Joyce says he will talk to colleagues as he formulates a new Coalition agreement: “It is not Barnaby policy, it is Nationals policy.” But asked what his views were on a net-zero carbon emissions target, Mr Joyce left little doubt about what his sentiments might be. “If the partyroom believes the best deal for regional Australia is to make sure we secure their jobs and secure their industries and clearly understands the dynamics of the Australian economy, which is not a European one, that is what I will be advocating,” he said.

Mr McCormack was criticised by colleagues for not demanding sufficient recognition from the party’s senior Coalition partner, a perennial problem for the Nationals. Mr Joyce is certain to have a bigger profile but his challenge will be to keep his ego in check. Mr Joyce has a history of wrecking unity and crossing the floor when things do not go his way. He needs to show discipline, and the party needs to be more introspective about what it is actually there for. Like all MPs, the Nationals are there for their constituents. Disagreements are inevitable in politics but Mr Joyce must stay good to his opening promise. This is not about him, it is about his party and, ultimately, good government.