India’s hope of pandemic relief

Deploying the 1.2 million-strong Indian army to help cope with the COVID-19 calamity may be the last thing the country’s hardline Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to do. Doing so would be a bitter political blow for a charismatic leader who, in the seven years since he took office, has claimed significant success in reforming and modernising long-outdated and inefficient governing structures in the world’s most populous democracy.

But with India becoming, on Tuesday, only the second nation (after the US) to pass 20 million infections, with 226,000 deaths, Mr Modi’s options amid the devastating consequences of the crisis battering the South Asian nation are limited. Calling in the army is one. So is a full-scale national lockdown, as recommended by US disease expert Anthony Fauci — and demanded by India’s opposition Congress party because of what it said was the “virtual collapse of health services” in the country of 1.4 billion people, most of whom have only the most basic access to medical aid or COVID-19 testing, if any at all.

Neither option will be welcomed by Mr Modi. Only weeks ago he was boasting to world leaders that India had triumphed over the coronavirus. His country had “saved humanity from a big disaster by containing corona effectively”, he said. His health minister declared in March that India was in the pandemic’s “endgame”.

Mr Modi is opposed to another nationwide lockdown similar to the one he ordered in March last year when India had fewer than 600 total reported infections. He has good reason to be cautious.

The first lockdown was economically devastating, putting tens of millions out of work. Migrant workers were forced to walk hundreds of kilometres to their home villages. There was a record fall of 24 per cent in economic activity.

On Tuesday, officials in New Delhi claimed the infection rate was “slowing down” after “only” 355,000 new cases were recorded in a day compared with the world record of 400,000 last Saturday. Such slight slivers of hope do nothing to mask the depth of the crisis. It is imperative Mr Modi does not repeat the mistakes he made.

India is paying a high price for his triumphalism in calling victory over COVID far too soon, as well as his Trump-like disregard for basic precautions by foolishly addressing state election rallies that became superspreader events attended by hundreds of thousands of maskless supporters.

His Hindu nationalist government also ignored medical advice and allowed mass religious festivals like the Kumbh Mela to go ahead without a mask in sight among the many millions participating. Sporting events, including Indian Premier League cricket matches, also went ahead.

Mr Modi is far from being alone among world leaders in having mismanaged the pandemic. India is still well behind the US with its 33 million cases and almost 600,000 deaths. But while US vaccination rates are soaring, with a commensurate drop in case numbers, the Modi government has now even lost its status as the world’s vaccine-producing powerhouse. Incredibly, it did not even order enough vaccines to protect itself.

This shortage has added immeasurably to the crisis. So has the incomprehensible failure of oxygen supplies and the way hospitals have been swamped, with victims left to die on the streets amid the chaos.

Even neighbouring countries like Nepal, not just Australia, have barred flights from India. There is little doubt Mr Modi, India’s most powerful leader in decades and a key Western ally, will pay a heavy political price for the disaster.

Whether the Indian army, the country’s most efficient and disciplined institution, can help turn things around remains to be seen. But what is clear is that until the chaos surrounding oxygen supplies, hospital admissions and vaccinations is solved, there is unlikely to be an end to the crisis.

The West, including Australia, must redouble its efforts to help. As leading epidemiologists warn, all the horror being seen in hospitals and crematoriums is only part of a far wider and largely unreported catastrophe affecting millions in India’s rural areas.