India relationship’s time has come

It may be, as Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Monday, that the bilateral relationship between Australia and India has been “underperforming”. Following the Taliban takeover in Kabul, however, there should be no doubt about the need to do everything possible to expedite moves to build the closest possible bilateral economic and strategic relations between Canberra and New Delhi. The Taliban victory is a regional game-changer. It has far-reaching strategic consequences, especially for India and its relationship with troublesome neighbours Pakistan and China. And this week’s visit to New Delhi by Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton for “2+2” ministerial talks presents an important opportunity to take advantage of what Dr Jaishankar, in the Australian National University’s JG Crawford Oration, described as “a tailwind which we hope will get us past the post”.

What Dr Jaishankar – one of India’s most experienced diplomats and a former ambassador to China and the US – was referring to, in immediate terms, was the Australia-India free trade deal that has been under negotiation for a decade without being finalised. At a time when, as Greg Sheridan noted, “our relations with China have never been worse”, the importance of getting the deal across the line cannot be overstated. As Josh Frydenberg said, “Our relationship with India is going to be critically important.”

As crucial as it is for Canberra and New Delhi to conclude the trade deal, however, it is just part of a wider geopolitical imperative that confronts India and other democracies, including Australia, following the Taliban terrorists’ triumph, which was achieved with decades-long help from nuclear-armed Pakistan and its tactic of achieving “strategic reach” aimed at embedding its influence over Afghanistan.

For decades, Hindu New Delhi worked to outflank Muslim Pakistan and gain influence in Kabul, especially under former Afghan president Hamid Karzai. With the Taliban having regained Kabul, not only are Pakistan’s perfidious generals and their interfering Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency assured of wielding major influence over Kabul’s new terrorist rulers, but they also will be able to help Islamabad’s closest economic and strategic ally, China, in its quest to gain influence in Afghanistan.

The immediate challenge to Senator Payne and Mr Dutton must be to bring finality to the trade negotiations. In that context, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s instruction, reported by Dr Jaishankar, to “do more with Australia … find a way of improving this relationship” is a promising sign. But there is a need, too, to focus on building a strong bilateral strategic relationship with India, the world’s most populous democracy. We are already partners within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, alongside the US and Japan. All four Quad nations, as Sheridan pointed out, now find themselves under serious challenge from Beijing’s unrelenting aggression.

Since independence in 1947, India has endured repeated, murderous border conflicts with China. Japan experiences constant Chinese air incursions that force it to scramble its air defences. In China, the US is confronted by one of the biggest military build-ups in history, most of it aimed at making it difficult for Washington to defend its allies in our region, including India and Australia.

India is understandably rattled by the Islamist terrorists’ triumph in Kabul and the security threat it poses to South Asia. It is deeply concerned by the strategic advantage the Taliban takeover gives the close Pakistan-China alliance. India has a much smaller economy than China. But it is, like China, a huge nation of global consequence destined to be a great power. Yet, as Sheridan pointed out, “we have never made even a tiny fraction of the effort with India that was made with China for 30 years. We do not even fund any serious study of India in our universities and the relationship has woefully lacked serious champions within Australian politics.”

That must change with Senator Payne and Mr Dutton’s visit and Dr Jaishankar’s promising talk of a “tailwind”. The knock-on effect of the upheaval in Kabul has changed the stakes immeasurably in the Indo-Pacific. The imperative for Australia and India to get the trade deal done and build a stronger bilateral economic and strategic alliance has seldom been more compelling. It’s time for both sides to have done with the “underperforming”.