Independents must be upfront

Anthony Albanese will be buoyed by the latest Newspoll. It shows a clear movement to Labor and the party’s primary vote recovering to the same level it was at during the 2022 election, 33 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote has slipped to 37 per cent, and there has been a reversal of the two-party-preferred vote to 51-49 in the government’s favour. The Prime Minister’s performance rating among voters also improved to minus 9 while Peter Dutton’s slipped to minus 18. That said, the contest remains close. Reaction to the budget is mediocre; only 22 per cent describe the budget as good and 32 per cent view it as bad.

Whichever way the polls move in the next month, the election outcome is uncertain and much depends on where the voting trends are felt. With the main parties’ low primary votes, a hung parliament remains a distinct, unwelcome possibility.

To prepare for such an outcome, crossbenchers seeking re-election or to enter parliament for the first time owe it to voters to be transparent about their intentions in the event of a minority government. South Australian independent Rebekha Sharkie, the member for Mayo, the seat formerly held for 24 years by Howard government foreign minister Alexander Downer, has taken a stand other aspirants should emulate. In the event of a hung parliament, Ms Sharkie said she would meet first with the Opposition Leader if he could form a stable ministry that would champion regional voters. Ms Sharkie’s intervention puts pressure on teal independents and other MPs and candidates to say which party leader they would turn to first and what factors would determine who they would choose to be the next prime minister, David Penberthy writes. Ms Sharkie, a former Liberal Party adviser, has become entrenched in the Adelaide Hills and Fleurieu Peninsula seat of Mayo, which she holds with a 12 per cent margin. While her vote is not locked either way, Mayo voters historically have been more aligned with the Liberals. And state electorates within Mayo are held by Liberals or independents.

Teal MPs interviewed, including Zoe Daniel in the Melbourne bayside seat of Goldstein and Sophie Scamps, MP for the Sydney northern beaches seat of Mackellar, refused to make their intentions clear. The Greens – with their dangerous policies of “Robin Hood economics”, stopping gas developments, abandoning the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact, putting dental and mental health treatment into Medicare, and wiping student debt – have made their intentions clear. Leader Adam Bandt says the Greens’ aim is to keep Mr Dutton out and make Labor act. Putting the Greens in a position to impose their road map to penury would be untenable.