GOP needs to shrug off Trump

US Republicans have reason to be worried about surprising new polling indicating they may not achieve their main goal in November’s midterm congressional election. As reported on Tuesday, Republicans remain on track to win a majority in the House of Representatives. But the big prize for the opposition party in the midterms is regaining control of the Senate as a prelude to retaking the White House in the 2024 presidential election. In a change of fortune amid drama and divisions surrounding Donald Trump, polls show Republicans on the back foot in the Senate race. The “red wave” of support projected to give the party a landslide victory is not happening. A “summer of stumbles”, arising largely from disunity over Mr Trump, has played into the hands of Joe Biden’s Democrats. Their chances of retaining their 50-50 hold on the Senate, or doing better, have surged from 50 to 62 per cent.

After 18 months in which much went wrong for Mr Biden – an ignominious abandonment of Afghanistan, inflation and crime, failure to shut down Covid and the President’s underwhelming performance – pundits expect Democrats to retain Senate control. After falling to the lowest level of any president, Mr Biden’s approval rating has risen from less than 38 per cent a month ago to 41. Inflation is down from a 40-year high, unemployment is 3.5 per cent.

Mr Trump hounding congresswoman Liz Cheney – a stalwart conservative and the daughter of Republican elder statesman Dick Cheney – until she lost preselection for her seat in the Wyoming Republican primary last week amplified divisions over his push to steamroll his way into being the party’s 2024 candidate. He targeted Ms Cheney and nine other Republicans who voted to impeach him over his role in the disgraceful US Capitol attack on January 6 last year. He got his revenge but he remains toxic to most voters. The FBI raid on his home had political undertones. But a former president found to have carted classified documents from the White House is a bad look. While Democrats loathe Mr Trump, they believe he will help them retain power despite their policy and governance failures.