G20 outcome points to the Australian way for Glasgow

The outcome of the G20 summit in Rome has provided a reality check for climate-action enthusiasts on what is possible when it comes to global co-operation. World leaders have sent a clear message that they are not ready to follow the US, the UK and Europe into promises that limit flexibility and their ability to deliver material wellbeing to citizens. The position adopted in a revised G20 communique is weaker than the position Australia has adopted on net zero. In fact, the mood among G20 leaders has been support for Australia’s stated position before a net-zero target for 2050 was adopted. After lengthy negotiations, the language finally adopted was for net zero to be achieved “by or around mid-century”. This allows China to continue with its stated target of carbon neutrality by 2060. Despite calls to end coal-fired power generation by 2030, the G20 leaders could only agree that countries that “commit to phasing out investment in new unabated coal power generation capacity do so as soon as possible”. Joe Biden’s Global Methane Pledge, which he will officially launch at COP26, also fell flat. The communique said the world’s leading economies would only “acknowledge that methane emissions represent a significant contribution to climate change, and recognise, according to national circumstances, that its reduction can be one of the quickest, most feasible and most cost-effective ways to limit climate change and its impacts”.

The G20 outcome justifies the position taken by the Morrison government to push back against demands to set a timetable to exit coal and quickly reduce methane emissions to the detriment of agriculture and the gas industry. Going into the Glasgow talks, Mr Morrison has positioned the nation as willing to co-operate, while not prepared to lecture other countries about what they should do. At the G20, Australia found its interests more closely aligned with other countries whose economies have a much greater exposure to fossil fuels than the UK or EU. These countries include India, Russia, China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and South Africa. The shared interests include concerns about possible climate-based trade sanctions and border tariff adjustments being proposed by the EU and US. The attitude of so-called BRICS nations has been central to shaping the outcome of previous UN climate conferences that are rooted in the ethic of treating developed and developing nations differently. With the demands of developed nations to end coal, cut back methane emissions and bring forward a net-zero timetable effectively dashed at the G20, the area of most concern for developing countries in Glasgow will be where are the billions of dollars in promised funds to help developing nations make the hoped-for low-emissions transition.

By adopting a net-zero by 2050 target, Mr Morrison has avoided Australia becoming the focus of disappointment if things do not go well. The challenge is to get Australia’s technology-first approach adopted as the way forward from Glasgow. Microsoft founder Bill Gates says maintaining public support for climate action depends on making sure the energy transition doesn’t cost so much that people lose patience. He says maintaining support of India, Brazil and South Africa depends on bringing down the price of green materials, so they don’t face a trade-off between rising prosperity or action on climate change. As the world’s biggest emissions nation, China ultimately will determine the impact of actions taken elsewhere. As talks in Glasgow finally get under way, the prospect of securing global agreement for tough measures appears to be weak. Organisers have again miscalculated the mood and must try to find a compromise solution. Australia is well placed to play a key role in charting the way forward.