Fresh lobster can’t hide the signs of great-power rivalry
According to Chinese Premier Li Qiang, China-Australia relations are now “mutually beneficial” and of a “win-win” nature. The latest evidence is the lifting of restrictions on lobster exports from Australia, effectively the last of a series of trade imposts that characterised Beijing’s adoption of “wolf warrior” diplomacy to further the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic and political ambitions. Mr Li said China was ready to share more development opportunities with Australia. Anthony Albanese said current development momentum of Australia-China relations was “positive and stable”, with dialogues in diplomatic, economic and other fields being carried out extensively. The Prime Minister insisted there was no quid pro quo for China lifting its trade sanctions. In Mr Albanese’s eyes, the “win-win” is straightforward. Australia gets the export dollars and Chinese consumers get fresh lobster.
The deal must be considered in a broader context, however, coming as it did on the eve of the ASEAN summit at which China put its diplomatic heft into overdrive. Global Times, regarded as a mouthpiece for CCP thinking and propaganda, revelled in Bloomberg reporting that as the US and its allies criticised Beijing for its actions in the East and South China seas, China was able to reach deals with regional countries. Bloomberg reported that China and ASEAN had announced plans to upgrade and broaden an existing trade deal; Beijing pitched accelerating rail projects with Thailand and Cambodia, and; China agreed to lift restrictions on lobster imports from Australia by year’s end. “In contrast, there were few major new policy initiatives from the US, beyond a joint statement on promoting safe and secure policies around artificial intelligence,” Global Times said.
The more significant diplomatic win for China was the failure of a proposal floated by new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba for the creation of an Asian NATO defence pact. Japan did not raise the issue officially and Mr Albanese did not mention it in discussions. This clearly was a win for China, but it is difficult to read too much into Australia’s position given the cool reception the idea had already received from major ASEAN nations, notably Malaysia and Indonesia. Nonetheless, Australia must be careful about sending mixed signals as it tries to balance the nation’s economic interests with broader security concerns.
China’s diplomatic outreach is one of co-operation and harmony that is not always matched by deeds. As Mike Pezzullo wrote in Inquirer on Saturday, the alliance between China and Russia is broadening and deepening, and any Eurasian hegemon that managed to establish strategic control of the interior lines and networks of continental trade, investment, transport, energy, data and technology flows would become the dominant global power if it were also a significant sea power that was able to hold at bay US sea power. Mr Pezzullo argued Australia would be best served by playing its part in the US-led counter-hegemonic strategy in the struggle for mastery in Eurasia.
To underscore the hazards that potentially lie ahead, on Monday the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command launched air, sea and rocket drills in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan. China said the drills, codenamed Joint Sword-2024B, were designed to send a “stern warning” to the separatist acts of “Taiwan independence” forces. Simulations included sea-air combat-readiness, the blockade of key ports and areas, assaults on maritime and ground targets, as well as joint “seizure of comprehensive superiority”.
Australia’s thaw in relations with China on trade and high-level dialogue is to be welcomed. But we must also be realistic that it was China that unilaterally imposed trade sanctions for geopolitical leverage, and could do it again.