French economy is rudderless

Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party uniting with the far-left New Popular Front to bring down the shortest-serving government in France’s Fifth Republic, founded in 1958, leaves no doubt about the enormity of the crisis facing Emmanuel Macron. In theory, the President’s position is not affected by the no-confidence vote in the National Assembly that ousted the prime minister, former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, appointed by Mr Macron three months ago. The cocksure Mr Macron insists he won’t be going anywhere until his presidential term expires in 2027.

He should not count on it, after the misjudgment he made in June, when, in a fit of pique following his centrist Renaissance movement’s defeat in European elections, he gambled on a snap election for a new French parliament to restore confidence in his government.

While that succeeded in keeping Ms Le Pen’s party out of government, it gave her a kingmaker role in a bitterly fragmented political landscape, and the previously unimaginable right-left united front that succeeded in ousting Mr Barnier on Wednesday shows the extent to which Mr Macron is under siege from those who believe they can force him out before 2027.

The French leader has only himself and his imperious, Trump-like self-esteem to blame for the political morass he is in. The mess defies easy solution, given the unity between Ms Le Pen and the far left that removed Mr Barnier. There appears to be no immediate prospect of Mr Macron finding anyone to be France’s fourth prime minister this year who is able overcome the obstacles that led to Mr Barnier’s ousting.

Europe’s second-largest economy is in stasis. Mr Barnier’s attempts to ram through a budget to avert a government shutdown at the end of the month remains stalled. Ms Le Pen’s populists and the far left, while they got together to bring down the government, are united on only three things: animus for Mr Macron, loathing of each other, and a refusal to countenance cuts to France’s overgenerous social welfare spending.

Without a government that commands a majority in the National Assembly, France will be unable to address the gaping hole in its public finances or resolve the political and economic uncertainty that has the potential to spook markets and weigh on other countries in the eurozone, including that of its largest economy, Germany, where the government is also facing collapse.

Neither the National Rally nor the New Popular Front have any ideas for reviving France’s lethargic economy.