Forever war achieved early goal but lacked strategy

The limited original mission of crushing the international jihadist groups behind the 9/11 attacks had been accomplished, Joe Biden argued, announcing the withdrawal of remaining US forces from Afghanistan: “A horrific attack 20 years ago … cannot explain why we should remain there in 2021 … it’s time to end the forever war.” But that argument does not diminish the dangers facing the US, Australia and other allies arising from the President’s decision to cut and run. It will have consequences in the global fight against terror. Foreboding about a return to power by the Taliban and its al-Qa’ida ally, as well as fellow jihadists Islamic State, is well founded. Top US military brass have profound concerns about an extremist takeover and Afghanistan again being a base for global terrorism. The UN is already reporting unprecedented violence as the Taliban closes in on the beleaguered government in Kabul of President Ashraf Ghani, which survives on US and allied support. Australia’s former chief of army, Peter Leahy, warns a new terror base could fan extremist movements in the region, in The Philippines and parts of Indonesia.

Scott Morrison’s announcement that Australia would withdraw the last of our troops marks the end of our longest war, in which 39,000 Diggers have served and 41 died. “This loss is great,” the Prime Minister said in a moving tribute on Thursday, in which he read out each fallen Digger’s name. “The sacrifice is immense, the bravery and courage are things we speak of but not know of personally.” The initial decision to commit to the conflict to “get Osama bin Laden, to get al-Qa’ida and make sure that Afghanistan did not become a haven for terror operations” was correct, Professor Leahy says. “But then we lost focus. We went off to Iraq in 2003. And then we had a series of changing strategies of missions. Just look at the names of the taskforces we sent there, training, mentoring, reconstruction, support and so on.”

Like Donald Trump and Barack Obama, Mr Biden faced no good options in Afghanistan. He inherited a hospital pass deal struck with the Taliban by the Trump administration in its politically driven attempt to bring home all US troops before the election last November. After failing to achieve that goal, Mr Trump set May 1 as a new deadline for withdrawal of the 3500 US and 6500 NATO troops, making their departure conditional on the Taliban ceasing attacks and breaking all ties with al-Qa’ida and other terrorists. Mr Biden, after taking office, expressed deep concern about the May 1 deadline and sought fresh negotiations with the Taliban. May 1 has now become September 11, the anniversary of the 9/11 horror. It would be hard to think of a worse date for the US departure. Islamist extremists will regard it as a triumph: “As if anyone needed reminding that exactly 20 years after Islamic terrorists struck New York’s twin towers and the Pentagon, prompting America to take the fight to al-Qa’ida’s Afghan sanctuaries, Islamic insurgents have chased another major power out of the country,” Amanda Hodge writes on Friday. The Taliban has outlasted Western firepower across two decades, just as Afghanistan’s mujaheddin fighters, including Osama bin Laden, previously outlasted and eventually put to flight the Soviet army. Mr Biden’s unconditional withdrawal, without even the terms Mr Trump sought to impose, confirms the insurgents have outlasted the US, too. The withdrawal from Kabul may not be as demoralising for the US as its last helicopter flight from the roof of the US embassy in Saigon in 1975. But it will be portrayed by enemy opponents as an ignominious retreat after 20 years of fighting, during which 300,000 civilians and 3500 US and allied troops were killed. The looming spectre is now a collapse into yet another civil war.

Americans, as Mr Biden says, are heartily sick of having troops deployed fighting endless wars. That was also Mr Trump’s argument. After the success achieved by George W. Bush’s initial deployment after the 9/11 attack, and his success in building the Western coalition that included Australia and most NATO nations, Mr Trump was determined to bring US forces home. But with a likely return to the status quo that existed in Afghanistan at the time of 9/11 (possibly even worse with Islamic State now a significant presence), it is hard to see how a resurgence of barbarism is to be avoided. For Afghanistan’s 39 million people, that strategic failure and a return by the Taliban will reverse important social advances achieved while the US and its allies have been there, such as schooling for girls and less oppression of women.

Since joining US-brokered peace talks in Qatar last year, the Taliban has laid the groundwork for a return to power. Girls’ schools have been bombed and a wave of murders targeting journalists, judges, civil servants, scholars and human rights activists have unfolded. Thousands of educated Afghans have gone into hiding and are seeking to flee the country, potentially creating a new refugee crisis. Mr Biden, as Mr Obama’s former vice-president, should know the dangers of a precipitous withdrawal. Mr Obama’s premature withdrawal of US forces from Iraq in 2011 led to the emergence of Islamic State and the need to redeploy US and allied forces. It will be a travesty if all that was achieved in Afghanistan after 9/11 is lost and the terrorists grab victory. If that eventuates, hopes of ending the “forever war” could become a nightmare in the fight against terrorism.