Filling subs gap problematic

Plugging the gap between the retirement of Australia’s ageing Collins-class fleet of submarines from 2038 and the arrival of nuclear-powered subs under AUKUS needs to be a Defence Department priority. As we noted last week, Peter Dutton’s plan, when he was defence minister, for Australia to buy two Virginia-class nuclear-­powered submarines by 2030 made sense. The problem, however, as reported on Tuesday, is that US reports on the submarine building industry suggest that selling Australia two Virginia-class vessels would severely restrict the ability of the industry to deliver Virginia-class boats for the US Navy for at least a year. This would occur at a difficult strategic time as China builds up its naval power and shows increasing aggression across the Indo-Pacific, threatening US and Australian interests and those of regional allies.

Australia’s order would occur at a crucial time for the US industry as it gears up to turn out two Virginia-class boats and one next-generation Columbia-class submarine (which is now the US Navy and the Pentagon’s top priority) a year. Australia’s need to plug its looming submarine gap coincides with the US industry struggling to overcome delays and capacity constraints to boost its nuclear-powered attack sub numbers from 47 to 66. Numerous US government reports reveal the country’s two submarine builders are struggling to deliver the US Navy’s target of two boats a year amid parts shortages, maintenance backlogs and the need to shift resources to building the Columbia-class ballistic missiles subs.

The most recent Virginia-class boat, the USS Oregon, was delivered about 16 months late. As one report says, building Virginia-class attack submarines has suffered from “a complex web of factors, some related to the Covid-19 pandemic now entering its third year, but most related to the prioritisation of the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program”.

In April, a report by the Congressional Research Service warned politicians to consider the industrial-base challenges of building both Virginia-class and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines at the same time. In a statement in January, the Electric Boat shipyard in Connecticut said that in getting the Columbia program on track, “we did take some resources from Virginia”.

Defence Minister Richard Marles is correct when he says the 2040s are “too far away” to wait for a replacement for the Collins-class fleet. He has made acquiring a replacement a priority. Being crucial to national security, the issue is too important for pointscoring from either side of politics.