Filling a vacuum in Afghanistan

The extraordinary speed of the Taliban’s advance on Kabul is such that Joe Biden’s original choice of the 20th anniversary of 9/11 for all US troops to be withdrawn now looks even more like tragically misplaced irony. Despite Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s desperate plea for his army to stand up and fight, the Taliban was reportedly at the gates of the city of 4.4 million people on Sunday night. The situation is “very dire’’, as Scott Morrison said earlier in the day. The Taliban, which protected Osama bin Laden and gave sanctuary to al-Qa’ida for years, could be back in control within days.

President Biden’s ill-judged decision to implement Donald Trump’s plan to pull out of the country known as “the graveyard of empires” is shaping as a humiliating strategic defeat for the West, with countries such as China, Russia and Iran likely to want to fill the strategic power vacuum being created. The situation, as the Prime Minister said, could hardly be more “heartbreaking” or “troubling”. Australia is set to join the US and other allies in despatching military flights to Kabul to rescue Afghans who helped Australian troops and aid workers during the 20-year conflict. With military assessments that the fall of Kabul could be imminent, speed is of the essence in extracting Australian workers from what would be their likely deaths at the hands of the Taliban. About 400 workers and their families have already arrived in Australia.

The main purpose of Australia joining the US and other allies in invading Afghanistan in 2001 was, as Mr Morrison noted, to “hunt down” bin Laden and prevent al-Qa’ida using the country as a global terrorist base. That was achieved, albeit that Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan in 2011. But that success is now at serious risk. The chaotic manner of the US withdrawal, like previous such withdrawals from Iraq, Libya and Syria, leaves Washington weakened, at least in terms of perceptions, at a time of rapidly escalating rivalry between the world’s major powers. China is one of five countries with a land border with Afghanistan and looms as a formidable contender to fill any vacuum. Last month’s meeting between China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, and Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Baradar left no doubt about the role Beijing will seek to play in Afghanistan, almost certainly in collusion with close ally Pakistan, whose ISI military intelligence service has long been one of the Taliban’s mainstays.

The consequences for key Western ally India could be far-reaching. China is also likely to work closely with Iran, with which it recently signed a massive aid deal. Iran’s Shia ayatollahs have not always been close to the Sunni Taliban but have recently established a significant strategic alliance. The Taliban’s capture last week of western Afghanistan’s commercial city, Herat, owed much to Iranian help.

Russia’s humiliating defeat in 1989 after its nine-year battle against Afghanistan’s mujahideen would make any of Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in Kabul problematic. But the disclosure last year that he was paying the Taliban a bounty to kill US troops shows the Taliban is not averse to dealing with him.

Strong Western leadership will be needed to deal with the fallout from whatever happens in Afghanistan. Dire though the situation may be, it should not be forgotten that after the US’s 1975 debacle in Vietnam, the West went on to win the Cold War. The reputational damage to Washington as a reliable ally could be significant. But that must not deter the West from endeavouring to ensure Afghanistan does not revert to being a base for global jihad.