Expensive restrictions must be lifted as soon it is safe

While low by international standards, Australia’s Covid-19 outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne are biting, especially economically. Regaining control of the virus is important. But in their states’ interests, and those of the nation, NSW and Victorian authorities need to lift current restrictions as soon as possible. The milestone on Sunday of 10 million vaccines administered was a morale booster. The program still has a long way to go to protect most of the population and make lockdowns redundant. Yet it is important, as Health Minister Greg Hunt says, that three-quarters of Australians over 70 have had one jab, although only 30 per cent of those in that age group are fully vaccinated. The arrival of new Pfizer supplies this week should accelerate progress. Imbalances in supply also need to be addressed and some states need to lift their game in getting their supplies into arms. As Tom Dusevic writes, NSW and Queensland have been efficient at getting jabs into arms but have been short-changed by about 560,000 doses. And while Victoria’s Daniel Andrews and Western Australia’s Mark McGowan have secured more generous vaccine allocations, they are the stragglers at administering them. As of last week, the two states were sitting on 63 per cent of almost 700,000 unused doses held by states and territories, even though they account for a combined 36 per cent of the population aged 16 and over.

At the weekend, NSW recorded its fourth death tied to the current outbreak. On Sunday, 76 people were in hospital, including 18 in ICU. As the Sydney outbreak continued with 105 new cases in the 24 hours to Sunday morning, Victoria’s “five-day” lockdown appears likely to be extended: another 36 community-acquired cases were confirmed there at the weekend, with six transmissions at the MCG, two at AAMI Park and seven at a nearby restaurant.

After persevering with moderate lockdown measures, the Berejiklian government’s two-week total lockdown of the construction sector from Monday, including major government projects such as the WestConnex, will send the economic cost of the crisis soaring. Business Sydney acting executive director Damian Kelly says pausing construction, which NSW has done following a spike in infections in the sector, will add an estimated $800m to $1bn a week to the costs of the lockdown. Depending on its duration, the construction lockdown’s impact on the NSW and national economies will be significant. NSW contributes a third of the nation’s GDP and construction has “a long tail through the economy’’, as Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said. While NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says the results of the harder lockdown will not be known for at least four or five days because of the lag in cases, the construction lockdown, in particular, must be lifted as soon as practical.

Economist Chris Richardson’s warning that the commonwealth will be forced to reinstate JobKeeper if a failure to contain the Delta variant triggers “rolling lockdowns” across the nation is a bridge too far, but it underlines the potential seriousness of the economic fallout. At least, as KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne says, many parts of the economy have returned to normal. The strong economic recovery and buoyant labour market will stand us in good stead. Yet tightly targeted restrictions that are as short-lived as safety allows will serve our interests in the long run.

The human costs of isolation must also be considered, as Sydney Archbishop Anthony Fisher said at mass, live-streamed from an empty cathedral, on Sunday: “Because we human beings are social animals, hardwired for company, separation affects us deeply. I know what it’s like. My dad’s nursing home is closed to the public and my mum is in hospital, allowed no visitors.’’