Economic strength propels McGowan towards victory

Judging by the mood across Western Australia — which is reflected in opinion polls — voters in the state are well satisfied with life and will reward Premier Mark McGowan and his Labor government accordingly on Saturday. As we reported last week, WA recorded the best budget performance in the world through the COVID-19 pandemic, underpinned by a boom in mining royalties that shielded the state’s bottom line from the world’s worst economic crisis in a century. Analysis by S&P Global Ratings shows WA has been a standout not only in Australia but in state jurisdictions around the world. While collapsing revenues and surging spending have left much of the nation and the world floundering in red ink, WA’s pre-election fiscal update projects a 2020-21 surplus of $3.1bn. Mr McGowan’s move, early in the pandemic, to allow mining companies to continue to fly in essential skilled workers set the state up to take advantage of surging iron ore prices. As a major exporting state — WA produces 48 per cent of Australia’s goods exports — its economic success is the nation’s success.

After taking Labor from 21 to 41 out of 59 Legislative Assembly seats in the 2017 election, Mr McGowan has been a strong leader. He has managed the economy well, both before and during the pandemic. In 2018, he struck a good deal with the Morrison government to ensure WA would receive at least 70c back from every dollar it pays in GST. And from 2024-25, the state’s GST payments will be set at a minimum 75c in the dollar. The deal, backed by both sides of federal politics, ended a decade of dissatisfaction in the west over the application of fiscal equalisation, which saw the state’s share of its GST payments fall to as low as 30c in the dollar at one point.

Mr McGowan, a lawyer, grew up in NSW, attended university in Brisbane and came to WA when the navy posted him there in 1991. He was elected as an MP five years later, served as a minister in the Gallop government and was elected opposition leader in 2012. He connected strongly with the WA public, and in 2017 defeated Liberal premier Colin Barnett. Some pundits believe Labor could all but wipe out the Liberals on Saturday, which says more about the opposition than it does about Mr McGowan.

Eight years ago, the WA Liberals were one of the party’s strongest, best-funded divisions in the nation. In 2008, the party turned to Mr Barnett, who had announced his retirement from politics, to return to the leadership. He won two terms. But the lack of succession planning became clear after Mr Barnett’s loss to Mr McGowan in 2017.

Zak Kirkup, 34, who is still in his first term in parliament, is the party’s fourth leader in four years. He replaced Liza Harvey, a former deputy premier, less than four months ago. Ms Harvey replaced Mike Nahan, a former treasurer, in mid-2019. Thrusting Mr Kirkup forward too soon could cost the party a future leader. He has already conceded he cannot win on Saturday. Last month, he said if he did not hold his marginal seat of Dawesville, south of Perth, he would leave the political arena.

On policy, the Liberals’ attempt to outdo the ALP with progressive policies, such as shutting down WA’s state-owned coal-fired power stations, a strategy rejected by Mr McGowan, has allowed the government to portray itself as more economically responsible than its opponents.

Amid strong prosperity, WA voters are unlikely to be impressed by the advertising blitz against Mr McGowan by the militant CFMEU over plans to replace the port of Fremantle with a new outer harbour in Cockburn Sound in Perth’s south. The unions are also bitter over Mr McGowan’s $1000 cap on public sector pay rises, a move that should appeal to swinging voters. On the negative side, Mr McGowan’s overblown stubbornness about maintaining hard borders for months longer than needed during the pandemic undermined WA tourism, the airline industry and the national economy. It will help rather than hinder him on Saturday because he tapped into a deep-seated populist sentiment in the west. But the crisis exposed the Premier’s authoritarian streak and his preparedness to brush aside the national interest, when it suits him, in favour or parochialism. He recently undermined hopes of national cabinet reaching a unified, sensible position on managing state borders. And until sense prevailed, he mooted the idea of leaving border controls imposed to tackle COVID-19 in place in the name of fighting crime.

As WA’s strongest Labor leader since the heyday of Brian Burke, Mr McGowan’s ties with the WA business community have been seized on by critics as echoing Mr Burke’s WA Inc era. This is a different time and environment. It is also natural, given WA’s small business community, that local billionaires such as Kerry Stokes and Andrew Forrest will be involved with government. But Mr Burke, who ran into trouble in the 1980s raising vast sums of money for Labor’s campaigns, recently advised Mr McGowan to ban donations from property developers. The issue is one the opposition, the media and the upper house need to watch. Good opposition is vital to good government. But it is the WA Liberals who face a major rebuilding job in the coming term.