East Timor is another brick in wall of China influence

China's President Xi Jinping. Picture: AFP

While the Albanese government was pondering China’s “package deal” offer to reset trade, Xi Jinping was busy limiting our strategic options and working to drive a wedge between us and our near neighbours. The decision by East Timor Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao to enter a comprehensive strategic partnership with Beijing is another brick in the wall of Chinese influence to the detriment of Canberra and Washington. The brevity of Solomon Islands leader Manasseh Sogavare’s address on Friday to the UN and his refusal to attend a Joe Biden summit on Pacific engagement this week are testament to the changing strategic times. Mr Sogavare railed against AUKUS and condemned the US for the Battle of Guadalcanal, a pivotal battle against the Japanese in World War II. China was praised by Mr Sogavare for its investment and attention.

Mr Gusmao has signed his deal with Beijing to “increase mutual support and strengthen international co-operation”. In strategic terms, China’s diplomatic advances on the Solomons and East Timor as well as Papua New Guinea represent a significant headache for Australia, the US and other Pacific leaders. As Peter Jennings writes on Tuesday, East Timor forms part of the northern archipelagic arc through which any military threat to Australia will come.

For the Albanese government and Foreign Minister Penny Wong the new China-East Timor deal is a reality check to its claim to have stepped up in the Pacific after neglect by Scott Morrison. As Southeast Asia correspondent Amanda Hodge notes on Tuesday, security deals signed with China by the Solomons and now East Timor have both happened under Labor’s watch. Australia is still East Timor’s largest international donor but Canberra does not have a comprehensive strategic partnership with Dili despite our geographic proximity.

It is not as if there have been no warnings. Last year, when Jose Ramos-Horta was inaugurated as East Timor’s fifth president since the country’s independence in 2002, he pledged to forge closer relations with China. East Timor and China have a long history of relations. China recognised East Timor’s declaration of independence in 1975 and it was the first country to establish diplomatic relations after East Timor gained independence. China has built several public buildings in Dili, including the Presidential Palace, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence. China’s ambitions in East Timor are geared towards expanding its influence in the region and restricting Taiwan’s international standing.

A statement issued after the weekend agreement said both sides agreed on close high-level military interactions, an expansion of bilateral investment, and co-operation in areas including infrastructure and food. As part of the deal, East Timor agreed to “firm adherence to the one-China principle” including the fact Taiwan was an “an inalienable part of the Chinese territory and … opposed to any form of ‘Taiwan independence’ ”. China, in turn, supported Dili’s right to choose its own development path including in energy. The stalled development of the Greater Sunrise gas field is critical to understanding East Timor’s motivations.

Many Australians are confused about why relations with East Timor have been so fraught given the protective role played by the Australian Defence Force when Indonesian troops looted the country on the way out. The East Timor government wants the federal government to encourage Woodside Energy to agree to develop production facilities in East Timor rather than pump the gas to Darwin. Early this month Mr Gusmao said he was confident of finalising an agreement with the Australian government and Woodside by early next year. The latest deal with China increases the pressure but the reality remains that Woodside is a private company. For Australia, regional security is a bigger concern. The East Timor deal is another sign of the size and urgency of the task at hand.