Dutton’s pragmatic plan to bolster submarine defences

Almost 10 years ago to the day, on June 10, 2011, under the headline “Not a single submarine seaworthy”, Cameron Stewart reported: “For the first time in a generation, Australia does not have a single submarine available to defend the nation today. The Australian understands the entire fleet of six Collins-class submarines cannot be put to sea despite the navy’s claim that two of them remain officially ‘operational’.” Fast forward a decade and Stewart is back on the front page, reporting on Friday that Defence Minister Peter Dutton has ordered that all six of the Collins subs be rebuilt to extend their life for another 10 years. Mr Dutton has a chance to stave off disaster and is decisive and pragmatic enough to grasp it.

The ambitious, high-risk plan to safeguard Australia’s submarine capability in the face of growing Chinese hegemony in the region is likely to cost taxpayers up to $10bn. But Mr Dutton commendably has acted on the basis of the nation’s strategic situation, which makes the rebuilding unavoidable. The Department of Defence estimates that China has 60 to 70 submarines operating in the Indo-Pacific, with the number expected to rise to at least 75 submarines by 2035. That is the year the first of Australia’s French Attack-class submarines is due to be in the water. But the full fleet of 12 new vessels will not enter service until the 2050s.

The submarine saga has been an expensive chronicle of wasted time and opportunity, of years spent patching up the Collins-class subs and settling on their replacements. The rebuilding project, which is likely to be carried out by ASC in Adelaide with assistance from the original builder, Sweden’s Saab Kockums, will have a significant impact on the budget during the next decade. What matters more, however, is that the government has made the right decision for the nation’s defences.

The aim of the exercise is to guarantee that the submarine fleet does not fall below six boats into the future. Australia needs “to be realistic about what lies ahead by way of threat in our own region, and the submarine capacity is a significant part of how we mitigate that risk and it’s important we get the program right”, Mr Dutton told The Australian. “There is no doubt in my mind that we need to pursue a life-of-type extension (for the Collins class).”

Mr Dutton’s move doubles the previous Defence plan to extend just three of the Collins boats. Each vessel will take two years to rebuild, starting when the oldest of the subs reaches the end of its 30-year life cycle in 2026. The plan is not without risk, however. It will entail the complete gutting of the submarines and the replacement and upgrading of all key systems, including diesel generators, main motors, batteries, sensors and digital periscopes. As Stewart reports, Defence has never attempted such a complex and complete rebuild of a submarine before. It will face a significant challenge to complete each sub successfully within the two-year time frame. Should the rebuilds take longer, the fleet of available submarines will fall below six at a time when Chinese naval power in the area is growing.

In view of strategic sensitivities in our region, the government’s main task is to make certain that the fleet of 12 Naval Group subs is best for the nation’s needs. When Malcolm Turnbull announced the purchase, he did so with an eye on the 2016 election, and in a less-tense strategic environment. Australian content was at the heart of the French deal – “ built in Australia with Australian jobs, Australian steel, Australian expertise”, the former prime minister boasted. At the time, we noted the “populist protectionism” behind the decision, although skilling up our workforce on such a project is a good thing.

Scott Morrison and French President Emmanuel Macron will discuss the project next week amid an impasse over the price for the detailed design. The subs will be first-of-type conventional long-range vessels based on the design of France’s Barracuda-class nuclear-powered boats. As Mr Dutton told Stewart, there “has been concern on both sides”. The minister’s responsibility, as he said, is “to make sure that we have the best capacity available to us and that contractual arrangements are being met”.

While the government remains strongly committed to the French subs, it is prudent to have a plan B. Defence secretary Greg Moriarty told recent Senate estimates hearings that contingency planning was under way if, for any reason, the program could not proceed. Mr Dutton rightly has not ruled out “taking whatever decisions are necessary to make sure that we have the proper protections in place”.