Dilemmas over nuclear subs flow from AUKUS pact

Defence Minister Peter Dutton is correct when he says China’s angry reaction to the AUKUS security alliance between Australia, the US and Britain, including threats of retribution, is “irrational” in view of Beijing’s own military expansion. In September, China claimed AUKUS would trigger a regional arms race and undermine international nuclear non-proliferation efforts and regional peace and stability. Australia’s long-range plan to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines should be considered, as Mr Dutton says, in the context of China’s producing, on a tonnage rate, more naval assets every 18 months than what the Royal Australian Navy has in its entire fleet.

China’s navy has 355 vessels, which would increase to 400 within the next nine years, Mr Dutton said. In October, Vice-Admiral Michael Noonan told a Senate estimates committee China was adding one submarine to its force each year and would have about 76 in the Pacific by 2035. North Korea currently has about 70. Lowy Institute research suggests that China’s nuclear submarine shipyard is producing vessels expected to be able to carry long-range land attack cruise missiles. With the mobility afforded by nuclear power, such submarines could be within striking range of Australia from within days of leaving Chinese bases in the South China Sea.

As Mr Dutton told Sky News on Sunday, Australia was “realistic” about China’s increasing dominance, which was evident “more and more regularly’’. It was unsettling and was unnecessary, as he said … nobody wanted conflict and the AUKUS pact was for “security, strengthening our own position and important alliances (and) targeting the desire to see increased stability and peace in our region”.

The Morrison government, or the opposition if it wins the election, and the Australian Defence Force face a major challenge in turning the rhetoric of AUKUS into the reality of defence security, as Cameron Stewart wrote on Saturday. Long-term, the pact will serve Australia well. The superior range, stamina and strike power of nuclear-propelled subs will eventually make our navy far more formidable. But the heart of the current dilemma, at a time of rising regional tensions, is the decades-long gap between retirement of Australia’s ageing and soon-to-be-refitted Collins-class submarines and acquisition of our first nuclear-powered subs. That gap will require Canberra to test the limits of its alliance with the US and the UK to ensure they make good on their promise to share sensitive ­nuclear know-how. Doing so will require the training of Australian crew in operating such vessels. The Australia Strategic Policy Institute points out the nuclear-powered subs will carry at least 130 nuclear-qualified personnel, almost double the number of sailors needed to operate the Collins subs.

On current trajectories, Australia risks having no submarine fleet or a grossly antiquated one in the late 2030s and early 2040s at a time when China’s maritime power will be peaking. The Morrison government has given itself 18 months from the AUKUS announcement in September to consider its options. As Stewart wrote, these include a second refit and extension for the Collins subs, taking them decades beyond their original use-by date, into the 2050s. Another option would be marking time technologically by building a new conventional submarine as a stopgap. Buying our first few nuclear-powered subs directly from overseas rather than taking the slower path of building them in Australia offers important advantages. As we said a decade ago when replacements for the Collins subs were being considered, a domestic defence manufacturing capability is a sovereign advantage, but the purpose of investing in military equipment is defence, not local job creation. While Mr Dutton has floated the idea of leasing nuclear submarines from the US or the UK as an interim measure, none is reportedly available. Nor does the RAN have the skills to operate them without extensive training.

In an increasingly volatile region, the AUKUS pact, the Quad security dialogue between Australia, the US, Japan and India, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and ANZUS are all vital to Australia’s national interest. So are partnerships with like-minded regional democracies such as South Korea, whose President, Moon Jae-in, is in Australia on a visit that has important potential to deepen our security ties.