Democrats face a Biden moment

Cartoon: John Spooner

US Democrats will make a mistake with potentially far-reaching consequences for the world if they simply wave through 80-year-old Joe Biden in his ambition to win a second four-year term in the White House. With polls showing 51 per cent of Democrats and 70 per cent of all voters oppose Mr Biden’s renomination, the party owes it to Americans – no less than to allies looking to the US for strong leadership at a time of deepening global crisis – to seek alternative candidates to join the fight to contest the 2024 election.

There are conflicting views about the Biden presidency so far. Surprisingly, former US House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, no friend of the administration, has pointed out that Mr Biden had one of the best midterm election results in US history last November. He counselled fellow Republicans not to underestimate him. Mr Gingrich’s warning plays into the view of those who believe Mr Biden has done better than expected, citing his multimillion-dollar stimulus package, effective war to defend Ukraine, and full-throated commitment to defend Taiwan as among his major achievements.

The contrary view, by The Wall Street Journal, is that Mr Biden has a miserable record: unprecedented federal spending and the worst inflation in 40 years, declining real incomes, worsening culture wars, and growing disorder and declining US influence in the world.

Where there is no dispute, however, is that Mr Biden is showing signs of declining physical and mental acuity. That goes to the heart of why the Democratic Party must not simply acquiesce in his wish for a second term. The video the White House issued to confirm his renomination showed him in the best possible light. But it will do little to change perceptions of his decline amid a scenario in which, if he won, he would start his next term aged 82 and leave at 86.

With Donald Trump (who would be 78 if he won and took office again) ahead in the Republican nomination race despite the abysmal record of his chaotic previous incumbency and disgraceful role in the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, powerful elements in the Democratic Party clearly believe Mr Biden would be their best bet in a rerun of the bitter 2020 face-off between the two. But they shouldn’t count on it.

As the New York Post, formerly a rusted-on Trump supporter, editorialised on Wednesday, Mr Trump is probably the one potential Republican candidate Mr Biden can indeed beat. Against a younger, more credible candidate other than Mr Trump, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Mr Biden’s senility would count heavily against the Democrats retaining the White House. Democrats need to consider that possibility before giving the green light to Mr Biden. His unrealistic quest for a second term also cannot be disassociated from the announcement that his running mate will again be Vice-President Kamala Harris. If she were more impressive, Mr Biden’s age would be less of an issue. With actuarial estimates indicating he could well die during a new term, or even in the 19 months between now and the election, the prospect of her becoming president is unlikely to do much for Democrat hopes. As The Wall Street Journal noted, many will see in a vote for Mr Biden in 2024 a vote for an inevitable Harris presidency.

Clearly uppermost in Mr Biden’s calculations is that nothing motivates Democratic voters more than Mr Trump’s mania and the constant scandal that surrounds him. Mr Trump also divides Republicans. He has lost substantial support among independent voters since his 2016 victory. Since that single victory, Mr Trump has been a standout electoral loser for the Republicans.

The grim and deeply worrying prospect that emerges from Mr Biden’s announced intention to renominate is a rerun of the bitterly divisive 2020 election between two candidates who are now so clearly not fit to be president. That is the last thing America and the rest of the world should want to see.