Crunch fortnight for economy

Whatever political satisfaction the Albanese government would gain from pushing through its IR changes by extending the scheduled two-week pre-Christmas sitting of parliament would carry long-term economic risks. Six months after the government’s election, the next fortnight will be critical to its relationships with businesses large and small, and especially with the mining industry, the backbone of export earnings. On Monday, Anthony Albanese will spell out his determination to pass the Secure Jobs, Better Pay bill in a speech to the International Trade Union Confederation World Congress in Melbourne. The Prime Minister will hit back at employers and the Coalition amid a fierce private sector revolt against the proposed industrial relations shake-up. Those who resist higher wages reforms are “wrong every time”, he will declare. That depends on how well higher pay is linked to productivity.

Employers from small grocers to Qantas and Rio Tinto argue that the IR bill’s provisions for multi-employer bargaining would undermine productivity. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, representing small businesses in all states, will launch an advertising blitz from Monday, claiming that the proposed changes will put “jobs and businesses in jeopardy”. Tuesday, when the Senate inquiry examining the legislation reports, will be a critical day. Not unreasonably, ACT independent senator David Pocock, whose vote Labor needs to pass the bill, is reserving his position until he reads the report. Senator Pocock previously urged the government to split the bill, a position now favoured by major businesses, which argue the time allotted to study such complex legislation is “absurdly short’’.

The Albanese government is also under pressure from the mining industry after The Australian’s recent revelation that it was considering a tax on gas and thermal coal to support energy consumers facing spiralling costs. The Greens will push hard in the Senate this week for a windfall profits tax on energy companies. Mining companies have warned that as many as 33,000 jobs, new energy projects and the transition to cleaner energy are at risk from multi-employer bargaining and new taxes. Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Tania Constable, backed by BHP, Rio Tinto, Whitehaven and Glencore, says a mining tax would “slow down Australia’s energy transformation”.

Critical minerals, lithium, copper and other resources projects valued at up to $77bn were at risk from investment uncertainty, the industry argues. Keen to avoid a re-run of the 2010 mining tax campaign, Jim Chalmers said on Sunday it was not the government’s “preference” to impose a temporary tax on thermal coal and gas. Its priority was on regulation. “But at this stage of the process, it makes no sense to take options off the table until or unless we can make progress on the regulatory side.’’ The outcomes of political debates in the next two to three weeks are likely to shape the economy for years.