Covid throws a dampener on Christmas travel plans

It’s the stumbling block Australia didn’t need. But it could be far worse. Christmas or not, the COVID-19 outbreak on Sydney’s northern beaches demands a sharp, effective response that limits social and economic hardship and avoids a widespread health crisis and, at worst, potential deaths. A week from Christmas, airports, especially Sydney, are in chaos; holiday plans are in disarray; business operators and workers just getting back on their feet around the nation are anxious. The Sydney to Hobart yacht race is under threat; the sands of the northern beaches are all but deserted, the red-and-yellow flags taken down. Nervous Nellies, as usual when COVID-19 rears its ghastly head, are panic-buying toilet paper. Shortly after NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced on Friday morning that the COVID-19 cluster on Sydney’s northern beaches had yielded 11 new cases, taking the total to 29, leaders of all other states began moving on borders.

Most of their responses were sensible and proportionate to the problem, including that of Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk. With a state election behind her and tourism back in full swing north of the Tweed, Ms Palaszczuk announced that from 1am on Saturday, travellers to Queensland who have been to Sydney’s northern beaches will have to go into hotel quarantine, at their own expense, for 14 days. West Australian Premier Mark McGowan, who goes to the polls in March, decreed that anyone arriving in WA from NSW will be required to self-quarantine for two weeks and take COVID tests. He may re-establish the state’s hard border with NSW, less than a month after it came down.

Uncertainty is exacerbating the problems. Victorians have been “strongly advised” not to travel to Sydney, where Victorian Health Minister Martin Foley expects conditions to deteriorate. If so, he warned Victorians on Friday, “you may not be able to re-enter Victoria without undertaking quarantining for 14 days”. Other states have issued similar messages.

The next two days will be crucial, with NSW health authorities warning on Friday afternoon that the cluster is likely to have spread farther afield — as far as Lane Cove on the north shore and to Woolloomooloo, Cronulla and Bondi Junction on the other side of Sydney Harbour. The new warnings suggest the cluster may have reached Sydney’s far south, as well as several inner-city suburbs and parts of the highly populated inner east. One case has spread to the NSW central coast.

If the potential crisis is to be contained to no more than a bad scare, the state’s respected testing and contact tracing system will be severely tested this weekend. To date, the system has served the state well. As epidemiologist Adrian Esterman says, authorities in NSW are backing their contact tracers to get on top of the outbreak without having to resort to strict lockdown measures. With 300 contact tracers, the task of chasing up about 3000 people as a result of the 29 infections was manageable, he said. It would be harder if the daily caseload exceeded 50.

Much is at stake, including as many as 155,000 jobs in industries most exposed to a possible round of renewed restrictions, Patrick Commins reports. Market researcher IBISWorld has identified 17,600 enterprises across 19 industries in NSW that would have a “very high” exposure to the reimposition of restrictions. Livelihoods in interstate tourist industries, especially Queensland, are also at stake.

As Josh Frydenberg says, the key question about COVID-19 was always not whether there would be new cases but how they would be managed when they arose. When Australians’ instincts are to travel and get together with family and friends after such a tough year, Sydney’s outbreak has arisen at a difficult time. Hard border closures and strict lockdowns need to be avoided so far as possible. Ms Berejiklian, to her credit, did not resort to compulsory lockdowns but urged northern beaches residents to stay home voluntarily for all but essential reasons: “We don’t want to go down the mandatory path but we will if we have to, but at this stage let’s see how the next 24 to 48 hours goes.”

The NSW government is also right in fining more than a dozen international aircrew members from South America $1000 after they allegedly failed to quarantine on their arrival in Sydney. Its decision that, from Tuesday, international airline crews arriving into NSW will be required to isolate in one of two hotels managed by police and NSW Health also makes sense. Similar procedures are needed for overseas airline crew in other cities.

Striking the right balance between restrictions and normal activity and the effectiveness of the NSW contact tracing system will be the keys to getting on top of the outbreak while minimising economic fallout. The problem has arisen as Europe’s death toll from coronavirus passed 500,000 on Thursday. There, the worst death rates per head of population are in Belgium, Italy, Spain and Britain. In the US, the death toll is 317,000 from 17.6 million cases. While incidences of COVID-19 continue to accelerate, the vaccine promises to be a game changer next year. For now, vigilance, hygiene and contact tracing remain vital.