Covid crossroads as NSW cabinet splits on lockdown

The leaders of NSW are caught in a Covid dilemma. They want the current lockdown of Sydney and its surrounds to be the last, as Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Monday. But, while she has flagged a further tightening of restrictions across parts of Sydney to reinforce eradication of the virus, some of her senior colleagues, including Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, want to reorient the state’s pandemic strategy by lifting restrictions and allowing the community to start living alongside the virus. And, questioned at a press conference on Wednesday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard was blunt: “I think at some stage, if the individuals don’t hear (NSW chief health officer) Dr (Kerry) Chant’s message and don’t respond, then at some point we’re going to move to a stage where we are going to have to accept that the virus has a life which will continue in the community.’’ Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox estimates the week-long extension of the lockdown, announced on Tuesday night, will cost Sydney’s economy at least an additional billion dollars.

The debate is shifting. Over the past two days, The Australian has argued that changing community, political and media mindsets in favour of living with the virus will need to be part of the opening-up process as vaccination rates improve. Rather than emphasising daily case numbers, it will be more important to concentrate on protecting the vulnerable and monitoring the number of serious cases of the disease.

At this stage, however, the vaccination rollout is far short of what is needed, although it is picking up pace. On Wednesday night, after 165,475 jabs were administered in the previous 24 hours, the rollout surpassed 8.5 million doses. Almost one in 10 Australians over the age of 16 are fully vaccinated; almost a third have had at least one jab; but more than two-thirds (68.5 per cent) remain unvaccinated.

Among people over 70, the most vulnerable to serious infections, more than 70 per cent have had at least one jab; and fewer than a third are unvaccinated. ANU medical expert Peter Collignon said the virus should only be allowed to run through the community once 70 to 80 per cent of the population had been vaccinated. NSW is paying a heavy price for the early sluggishness of the vaccine rollout.

As Yoni Bashan reports on Thursday, Mr Perrottet argued during a meeting of the NSW crisis cabinet on Wednesday that persisting with the lockdown would compound businesses’ hardship because they would not have access to the JobKeeper wage subsidy, previously available. Experience in Melbourne suggests that is correct. Melbourne’s deserted CBD streets, abandoned offices and empty restaurants and bars have become a stark warning of the impact of successive lockdowns.

A month after Melbourne’s fourth lockdown ended and workers were given the green light to return to the office, many have opted to stay home, deterred by the rule mandating masks in offices. That rule will be lifted from 11.59pm Thursday and density limits relaxed, after too long a delay. Many Melbourne business owners have spent their last dollar trying to save their livelihoods, KPMG head of restructuring James Stewart says. That is a fate the Berejiklian government, which has taken a proportionate response throughout the pandemic, will be determined to avoid. For as long as Sydney’s lockdown lasts, officials are right to be concerned about areas such as Fairfield, Canterbury-Bankstown and Liverpool in the city’s southwest, where cases continue to emerge partly due to noncompliance. While the lockdown remains, it is in Sydneysiders’ interests to comply to shorten its duration. In areas where the virus is under control, the lockdown should be lifted.