Counting the electricity costs

However much Bill Shorten and Labor try to dismiss the analysis of Climate Change Authority modelling showing Labor’s 50 per cent renewable energy target by 2030 would pile an average $200 a year on to household power bills, their denials will be unconvincing while the opposition fails to produce and explain its own modelling. As Simon Benson revealed yesterday, the analysis of CCA modelling, a body set up by the Gillard government, has calculated that Labor’s energy policy, including its 45 per cent emissions reduction target, would require17,000 megawatts of coal-fired power to be taken out of the National Electricity Market. That figure would be equivalent to 75 per cent of existing coal-fired generation, or 10 coal-fired power stations similar in size to ­Hazelwood. Such a transition to renewables would reduce Australia’s 16 coal-fired power stations to one or two.

Opposition energy spokesman Mark Butler said yesterday the analysis was based on modelling Labor had never supported. But he did not offer alternative projections. In contrast, Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has promised that before energy ministers meet next month, he will release modelling of the government’s National Energy Guarantee policy, which he says will cut household bills up to $115 a year.

Mr Shorten has criticised the NEG for scaling down Australia’s renewable energy industry in return for a “lousy” 50c-a-week saving. But the CCA modelling has strengthened Malcolm Turnbull’s case. Based on available figures, the Coalition’s policy would leave householders $300 a year better off. As Mr Shorten said in Geelong last week, “if spiralling gas and electricity prices are not tackled, the energy crisis will become a jobs crisis”, especially in manufacturing. But scaling back the use of coal-fired power, a cornerstone of Labor policy, would exacerbate the problem. After years of soaring prices, blackouts in South Australia and looming shortages, consumers and business will have little patience with Labor’s vague denials that the cost of Labor policy is wrong. Mr Shorten needs to detail the impact of his policy.