Coronavirus ignites epic battle of the superpowers

The inability of foreign ministers from the US, Britain, Japan, Canada, France, Germany and Italy to issue a joint G7 statement after meeting on Wednesday was indicative of deep divisions among the world’s most influential powers. The sticking point was US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s insistence on including the phrase “Wuhan virus”. After years of strategic and trade tensions, the relationship between the world’s two largest economies is deteriorating further as the COVID-19 pandemic takes hold. Unless Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reach a surprise rapprochement, which is needed in the interests of humanity, the consequences could be immense.

With their citizens’ lives at stake, the willingness of Italy, Spain, The Netherlands, Ukraine, Greece, Austria, Iraq, Iran, the Czech Republic, Sri Lanka and Pakistan to accept plane-loads of medical equipment and intensive-care experts from China is understandable. Closer to home, The Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia also have accepted Chinese largesse. But leaders such as Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic, who went to the airport to welcome Chinese supplies, gushing about his belief in “my brother and friend Xi Jinping”, need to be circumspect. China’s mask diplomacy is an attempt at what the Lowy Institute’s Richard McGregor termed “the fastest turnaround in global history from pariah to hero”. China wants to defuse criticism of its initial deceit in covering up and lying about the outbreak, which is believed to have originated in Wuhan’s filthy “wet” wildlife markets. Giving the disease time to spread will cost countless lives and create economic catastrophe.

In the longer term, the strategic consequences will be alarming for Australia if the US is dangerously weakened by its flawed response to the virus and China gains fresh advantage in their rivalry, as Paul Kelly writes in Inquirer. While the sclerotic US and European health systems struggle, China is positioning itself as a saviour, emboldening itself to assert its values. In Italy, where 300 Chinese intensive-care doctors and nurses are assisting, the Chinese have chastised Italian authorities for allowing too many people on to the streets of Milan. “Right now we need to stop all economic activity and we need to stop the mobility of people,” a Chinese official demanded. In a conversation with Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Mr Xi spoke of building a Chinese “Health Silk Road” in tandem with the Belt and Road Initiative. Scott Morrison grasps the dynamic. As he said on Friday after Thursday’s G20 meeting, there has “never been a more important time for Australia’s Pacific step-up” to help our neighbours, including East Timor, manage the pandemic. If Australia and our allies do not step up, China will fill the vacuum.

China’s increasing assertiveness is being aided by influential players in global forums and organisations. As Maurice Newman wrote on Friday, there was no shortage of admiration for the Chinese dictatorship at the Davos World Economic Forum in January. Former UN Framework Convention on Climate Change chief Christiana Figueres, for example, lauded China’s ability to “implement policies because its political system avoids some of the legislative hurdles seen in countries including the US”. So much for representative democracy and freedom.

The world’s economic recovery after the global financial crisis underlines the benefits of US-China co-operation. But constructive engagement is unlikely, at least until after November 3. The “China virus”, as Mr Trump describes it, will be his alibi on the hustings for the gross failures of the US health system. On Friday, the US COVID-19 caseload eclipsed China’s. However reckless, Mr Trump’s gamble in pushing for his nation to get back to work after Easter and his ferocious anti-China blame game are helping him among US voters at this stage. There is much for him to criticise. The Chinese foreign ministry’s fake blame game in pretending the US Army spread the virus at the Military World Games in Wuhan in October was preposterous. After the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2002-03, China pledged to shut its “wet” markets. But those viral melting pots for zoonotic diseases stayed open.

Australia has long straddled a close and warm alliance with the US and our problematic but important economic relationship with China. Escalating tensions between the superpowers could make our dealings with China only more difficult. Australia’s prosperity has been built on foreign capital. But as the COVID-19 economic crisis unfolds, the Foreign Investment Review Board needs to stand firm against cashed-up, foreign government-backed investors seeking to snap up local companies at bargain rates. Our national interest comes first. That interest will be best served by the approach the Prime Minister outlined after the G20 summit. Australia, he said, favours a collaborative, collective approach in research, economic action and expanding the manufacture of medical supplies and sharing them. In an increasingly volatile world, Australia’s best course is to hold fast to our values, principles and alliances.