Confidence will be vital in nation’s Covid comeback

Compared with most nations, Australia has begun the vaccine rollout in a strong position. As of Saturday, the nation had 39 active coronavirus cases, including 25 in Victoria after the Holiday Inn outbreak was brought to heel. Nine people were in hospital with COVID across the nation and one person was in intensive care. No new locally acquired cases were reported. The Morrison government and medical authorities have been in the fortunate situation of not needing to rush out vaccinations to save lives. They have had time to learn from overseas experience and build community confidence in the program, after the Therapeutic Goods Administration approved the Pfizer vaccine in January and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine last week.

After a torrid 12 months, expectations are rising for a return to pre-COVID normal life and freedoms. Scott Morrison received his first jab at the Castle Hill Medical Centre in Sydney’s northwest on Sunday, where his comments further built up community hopes. “Every day that goes past from here gets more normal and that is what we have started today,” he said. “Our comeback from the COVID-19 pandemic is under way, and today we have just taken another massive step.” Most importantly, Australia has avoided the Prime Minister’s greatest fear — the “widespread fatalities that we saw overseas”. Australia has suffered 909 deaths from COVID-19, including 820 in Victoria, 54 in NSW, 13 in Tasmania, nine in Western Australia, six in Queensland, four in South Australia and three in the ACT. The contrast with Britain, for example, where a dire situation is finally improving, remains stark. More than 17 million people have had their first COVID shot in the UK. New cases have fallen from 60,000 to 10,000 a day and the number of deaths to about 445 a day. Worldwide, 110 million infections have resulted in almost 2.5 million deaths.

Australia is well positioned for a further economic rebound after unemployment fell in January from 6.6 to 6.4 per cent, and an increase in full-time jobs. But with underemployment of 8.1 per cent, youth unemployment at 13.9 per cent and JobKeeper to end in late March, serious challenges remain. Not unreasonably, business has sought assurances from the Morrison government that the long-awaited vaccine distribution program will avert further border closures by the states and the heavy costs they impose on the economy, Jamie Walker reports on Monday.

Last week, Mr Morrison raised hopes that international travel might be able to restart within months, depending on the success of the vaccines around the world. That would be a major boost for two of Australia’s major export earners, international education and tourism. With more than 200 million doses of vaccines distributed across the world so far, it makes sense for all nations, rich and poor, that the G7 powers are providing $7.5bn to help poorer nations buy vaccines. Much will depend on take-up rates.

But in Europe, scientists are warning that the world has reached a precarious point in the pandemic, in which conditions are ripe for the rise of more new coronavirus variants that could complicate efforts to control the disease. The virus is continuing to spread rapidly in many parts of the world, even as segments of populations have gained some immunity from being infected, or have been vaccinated. The scientists say the combination of high rates of viral transmission and a partially immunised population encourage the emergence of new variants.

In Australia, more than 60,000 frontline medical staff, quarantine workers and aged-care residents will be vaccinated this week. Under the government’s timetable, more than 800,000 people a week will be inoculated when the program ramps up, with a target of 4 million to receive an initial dose by the end of April. Most adults should be vaccinated by October.

One of the practical challenges is that businesses fear they will be stumbling through a minefield of liability if chief health officers do not order clear and consistent rules around COVID vaccination in the workforce. Industry Australia Group chief Innes Willox cites potential problems in guidelines released on Friday by Safe Work Australia on employer obligations. For example, employers may have to pay out workers’ compensation if employees contract COVID in their workplace, Ticky Fullerton reports on Monday. Yet mandating workers to be vaccinated brings liability risk to businesses. And requiring visitors or customers to bring proof of vaccination may give rise to privacy and discrimination issues. Business Council of Australia chief Jennifer Westacott says serious work needs to be done quickly on the issue, between government and business.

The vaccine is not compulsory, a point that appears to be lost on hundreds of anti-vaxxers who gathered to protest in capital cities on Saturday. But it is the best potential game-changer we have against a once-in-a-century pandemic. The next few months will tell if COVID-19 is on the run. A year ago, as the pandemic was emerging, the probability of a vaccine being available in 12 months seemed remote. Provided it succeeds, it will be one of the most important triumphs of science for decades.